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  • 學位論文

近百年台灣地區氣溫變化之分析研究

An Analysis of Air Temperature Change in Taiwan from 1897 to 2000

指導教授 : 姜善鑫

摘要


近年來全球發生數起氣候異常的災害並導致嚴重的傷亡,氣候變遷的議題遂逐漸引起世界各地的重視。目前造成氣候異常的主要理論依據,建立於人為排放溫室效應氣體,持續增強全球暖化的效應;然而在全球氣候變遷之大尺度(macro)的背景之下,中尺度(meso)及小尺度(local)之部分地區的氣候變遷型態卻呈現出不同的特徵,這表示局部地區的人為活動也可能會影響當地的氣候。氣溫很容易反映出氣候變遷的情形,國內外已經有許多學者、先進對氣溫變遷進行研究,綜觀大多數的研究文獻,目的即在檢證該地區是否具有變遷的跡象,再進一步去探討可能的影響成因。本文改進過去的研究,嘗試對台灣的氣溫變遷作進一步的分析,主要的目的及方法如下: 一、 氣溫之長期趨勢 以時間序列迴歸模型(time series regression model)分析近百年台灣氣溫之變遷型態及地區特徵,並比較台灣和世界各地的變遷型態,再分析台灣經濟蓬勃發展前後,都市及偏遠地區的氣溫變遷。 二、 氣溫之循環波動 剔除長期趨勢的干擾,以最大熵法(maximum entropy method)分析自然週期對台灣氣溫的影響,及自然週期波對台灣各地時空上影響的差異。 三、 影響氣溫之因素 建立氣溫變化的複迴歸模型(multiple regression model),並分析各因素的重要性。 分析結果顯示,就台灣氣溫之長期趨勢而言,偏遠地區的變遷屬於區域變遷的一部份,都市地區的變遷則在經濟蓬勃發展前後,趨勢呈現差異。就氣溫之循環波動而言,大部分地區受ENSO週期波的影響明顯,受影響的時間不同。就影響氣溫之因素而言,人為因素對年均溫及年平均最低溫具揚溫作用,自然因素對年均溫及年平均最高溫具抑溫作用。更進一步分析,解釋大都市月均溫、月平均最高溫及月平均最低溫最重要的因素為蒸發量,解釋影響月平均氣溫日較差的因素則較不一致。

並列摘要


Recently, several extreme climatic events have caused serious disasters, and the issue of climate change was gradually noticed by the authorities of the governments. The theory about the abnormal climate is the point which human activities emit a large amount of greenhouse gases which enhance the greenhouse effect of the earth. The types of climate change in different scales - macro, meso, and local – are different; it implies that the human activities in local areas may affect the climate. Many scientists have studied the issue of air temperature changes for a long time. Most of them have tried to diagnose whether the air temperature changes in the area, and then have tried to learn what reasons cause the impacts. In this thesis, the author improved the past studies, and tried to analyze the air temperature changes in Taiwan from 1897 to 2000. There were three purposes in the thesis: 1. The trends of the air temperature The time series regression model was used to analyze trends of the air temperature in Taiwan for nearly one hundred years. The author compared the trends of the air temperature in Taiwan with those in other areas. And he compared the trends of the air temperature before the economic booming time with those in the economic booming time. 2. The periods of the air temperature The spectral and cross-spectral analyses applying the maximum entropy method were used to analyze the air temperature. 3. The factors of the air temperature changes The multiple regressions were used to analyze the importance of the potential factors that might affect the air temperature. The air temperature in Taiwan is affected by both human and natural factors. The results indicate that the rural areas’ air temperature trends are similar to other areas and that the trends of air temperature are different between the pre-industrial and industrial periods. Second, most areas are affected by ENSO events, and they almost have different time lag. Furthermore, human factors increase the air temperature; however, natural factors decrease the air temperature. Finally, the most important factor that influences the mean monthly temperature, the mean monthly maximum temperature and the mean monthly minimum temperature is evaporation, but the main factor that influences the mean monthly diurnal temperature range is not a simple one.

參考文獻


賴栗葦、姜善鑫 2003 台灣地區之降雨變遷研究,中華水土保持學報,34
賴栗葦、姜善鑫 2004 台灣地區氣溫之變遷研究,中國地理學會會刊,33:1-20。
吳明進 1993 台灣的氣候分區,大氣科學,21(1):55-66。
吳明進 1992 台灣的氣候變化-氣溫和降水,大氣科學,20(4):295-318。
黃年 1976 台灣地區太陽黑子與氣象之關係,大氣科學,4:22-27。

被引用紀錄


何一先(2011)。流域生態系統濕地經營管理策略研擬─以關渡自然公園為例〔碩士論文,國立臺北大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=U0023-0709201102365200
周怡靜(2011)。氣象因子與死亡率之相關性研究〔碩士論文,臺北醫學大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=U0007-2707201117022400

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