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緬甸外國直接投資與經濟成長之動態關係

The Dynamic Relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in Myanmar

Advisor : 雷立芬

Abstracts


Parallel abstracts


This study has employed error-correction model (ECM) and standard Granger-causality test to examine the dynamic relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth in Myanmar using annual time series data over the period 1971-2014. The empirical results show that time series of FDI and GDP are non-stationary at level but they become stationary at first difference. The Co-integration results establish the existence of a long-run relationship between the two variables. From the results of ECM, there exists a uni-directional long-run causality running from GDP to FDI and the coefficient of error correction term is negative and highly significant at 1% level, confirming the long run equilibrium relationship between the two variables. In the short run, the associated coefficient of lagged FDI and lagged GDP are all statistically significant, implying a bi-directional causality between FDI and GDP. The Standard Granger-causality results reveal that FDI has a significant positive impact on GDP in the short run but not vice versa. In general, the results can be interpreted as although FDI has a direct effect on economic growth in the short run but economic growth performance is an important driving force of FDI inflows into Myanmar in the long run.

References


Khine, T. (2008). Foreign direct investment relations between Myanmar and ASEAN.
Hsiao, F. S., & Hsiao, M.-C. W. (2006b). FDI, Exports, and Growth in East and Southeast Asia-Evidence from Time-Series and Panel Data Causality Analyses. Paper presented at the 2006 International Conference on Korea and the World Economy V.
Akaike, H. (1973). Information theory and an extension of the maximum likelihood principle. In Second International Symposium on Information Theory (pp. 267-281). Akademinai Kiado.
Alfaro, L. (2003). Foreign direct investment and growth: Does the sector matter. Harvard Business School, 2003, 1-31.
Alfaro, L., Chanda, A., Kalemli-Ozcan, S., & Sayek, S. (2004). FDI and economic growth: the role of local financial markets. Journal of international Economics, 64(1), 89-112.

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