崩塌危害分析模型之建立－以臺北水源特定區為例

The Establishment of a Landslide Hazard Analysis Model for the Taipei Water Source Domain

陳樹群(Su-Chin Chen) ； 吳俊毅(Chun-Yi Wu) ； 謝政道(Cheng-Daw Hsieh)

《中華水土保持學報》 43卷4期 (2012/12) Pp. 332-345

https://doi.org/10.29417/JCSWC.201212_43(4).0006

摘要

本研究結合崩塌空間機率、時間機率及崩塌規模機率，來進行崩塌危害分析。崩塌潛勢相關因子經篩選後包含7個內在地形因子及2個外在降雨因子，以建立崩塌潛勢模型；崩塌規模分析則先建立崩塌面積與非累積個數之冪次關係，再以機率密度函數將其轉為崩塌面積累積機率；最後以不同重現期距降雨之超越機率來做為該事件之時間機率，用以估算集水區發生崩塌面積大於一定規模之年計機率。經分析本區崩塌機率較高者為南勢溪上游區域，為未來經營管理之主要目標。

關鍵字

崩塌潛勢 ； 崩塌危害分析 ； 臺北水源特定區

並列摘要

Landslide hazard assessment includes the landslide spatial probability, temporal probability, and the probability of landslide area (or volume). Seven geomorphological factors and two rainfall factors, evaluated as effective factors because of the higher correlation with the landslide distribution, were considered in the landslide susceptibility model. The probabilities of landslide area (or volume) were developed by transforming the power law formula in the landslide frequency-area (or volume) distribution. Then, the landslide spatial probability and exceeding probability of different rainfall events as well as the probability of landslide area were used to predict the annual probability of each slope-unit with a landslide area greater than the threshold. The slope-units with high landslide probability were distributed over the upstream Nan-Shih Stream basin, which is the main region for managing serious sediment-related hazards in the future.

並列關鍵字

Landslide susceptibility ； landslide hazard analysis ； Taipei Water Source Domain