甘藍價格之變動分析

Analysis of Fluctuation of Cabbage Price

林文雄(Wen-Hsiung Lin)

《桃園區農業改良場研究報告》 12期 (1993/03) Pp. 33-49

摘要

本研究係探究甘藍之農場價格、批發價格、零售價格及其相互價差之季節性與循環性變動。分析結果顯示，本省甘藍之農場、批發與零售價格，以8、9、10月之價格最高，6、7、11月價格居中，1、2、3、4、5、12月價格最低。零售價格與批發價格及廣場價格之價差，亦是8、9、10月最大，6、7、11月次之，1、2、3、4、5、12月最小。年代與零售價格之相關係數0.613較農場價格之0.439及批發價格之0.444為高，月別與農場價格之相關係數0.408較批發價格之0.389，零售價格之0.381為高。農場價格、批發價格與零售價格間之相關性均很高，相關係數在0.952－0.979之間。其零售價格之迴歸式為：零售價格= -1177.626 + 0.595（年代）+0.177（月別）+1.380（農場價格）+0.918（批發價格）。分析結果，可供指導農民調整甘藍之供應期為8、9、10月份，最能獲有高利，其次為6、7、11月份，1～5及12月份，不宜生產供應甘藍。

並列摘要

In order to get better understanding of the fluctuation of cabbage price in production farms, wholesale and retail marketing caused by different seasons and circulation among those factors were surveyed. The data were download from C.O.A. database. Monthly data collected from 1973 though 1992 were analyzed with ANOYA, CORRELATION and STEPEWISE REGRESSION by SAS program. The results showed that the hightest price of cabbage was in August, September and October. The middle price was at June, July and November, while the lowest price were at January, February, March, April and December. Differences of the price were the same as the price of production farms, wholesale and retail marketing. Correlation coefficient between year/retail price (0.613) is higher than year/farm price (0.439) and year/wholesale price (0.444). Correlation coefficent between month/farm price (0.48) is higher than month/wholesale price (0.389) and month/retail price (0.381). Correlation coefficient between different prices are 0.952 to 0.979. The regression model for retail price is as follow: Retail price = -1177.626 + 0.595(year) + 1.38(farm price) + 0.918(wholesale price).The results from this study suggested that the best timimg for cabbage production is in August, September and November, next is in June, July and Octorber. The rest of months is not favoable for babbbage production.