臺灣水資源乾旱預警系統建置之研究

就預警模式／系統建置方式而言，「區域水資源調度機制」中所頒布之水資源預警指標（Water resources Early Warning Index, WEWI），係於定義指標因子與指標間的加權關係後，以歷史乾旱紀錄進行權重試誤測定，並根據發展者對乾旱的認知，就指標等級進行人為判斷及配置，屬「就模式建置指標」；目前大部分乾旱「預警」系統亦多屬多重因子綜合指標。就合理乾旱指標模式／系統的建置而言，除需先行具體定義乾旱預警的標的、指標／預警值的意涵及乾旱等級外，並應考量「現況水情監測」與「氣候預報」兩者資料的特性進行模式的建置；而所建置的模式必須能就「決策風險來源」，提供決策者模式推論誤差及自然界隨機現象不確定性的資訊。以常識觀點，前述所言似乎更顯系統建置前置作業的重要性，然其仍缺乏實證的支持。本文以「就指標建置模式」重新檢討前述機制之合宜性，此研究的結果將對日後乾旱預警研究的發展有所助益，所提策略亦將透過個案研究來展示其可行性。

關鍵字

乾旱；乾旱預警；乾旱預警指標；缺水率；區域水資源調度機制

並列摘要

As an early drought prevention measure, the Water Resources Agency (WRA) of Taiwan decreed the ＂Regional Water Resources Regulations＂ in 2003, it demanding that regional water resource offices establish an appropriate water resource early warning index (WEWI) according to the given principles. However, this evaluation is subjective, and human error may affect the results when using trial and error to adjust the weights of the major and minor factors in the WEWI. The effectiveness of this system's warnings has been doubted, because its early warning ability and warning risk cannot be explored, and thus related organizations have had a hard time using the information that the WEWI provided.The difference between early warning systems and monitoring systems is that the former should explore the uncertainty of future hydrologic conditions, and evaluate water shortage situations caused by hydrologic processes in a specific water supply district during a specific period. With regard to reservoir water supply systems, if it is known that a severe water shortage will occur in the future, then to fulfill the water demand during the operation period, early water-limiting measures may be used to avoid a disastrous water shortage before the next wet season arrives. Common sense seems to indicate the importance of system establishment pre-processing, but the empirical support is still lacked. Recent studies that have attempted to establish a direct relationship have not been very successful. The study review the suitability of ＂Regional Water Resources Regulations＂ according to the mechanism of established model that build up with the selected factors. The result of this study could be useful to water resources manager responsible for planning a water resources drought early warning system in local conditions.

並列關鍵字

Drought ； Drought early warning ； Drought early warning index ； Water shortage rate ； Regional water resources regulations

國際替代計量

臺灣水資源乾旱預警系統建置之研究

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