- 期刊
水庫集水區季雨量遙相關分析與預報模式之建立
Development of Teleconnection-based Seasonal Rainfall Forecasting Models for Reservoir Watersheds in Taiwan
摘要
本研究主要目的在於發展枯水期間全臺18座水庫及3處攔河堰集水區之遙相關季雨量預報模式。採用大尺度環流、海溫、臺灣鄰近風場、Niño3、SOI及PDO等指標及各集水區月雨量作為候選輸入變量，各集水區未來三個月總雨量為輸出變量。利用複回歸分析、支撐向量機及隨機森林等三種模式建構方法進行建模，分別優選出各集水區不同預報起始月（10月至3月）之最佳輸入變量組合，以完成各集水區遙相關季雨量預報模式之建置工作。分析結果顯示：三種模式建構方法中以隨機森林之整體表現最佳。為求實務應用之簡便性，進一步優選北、中及南部地區在不同預報起始月之區域最佳變量組合，建構區域最佳遙相關季雨量預報模式。經比較（1）單純以前期月雨量為輸入變量、（2）環流、海溫、風場與Niño3為輸入變量，及（3）區域最佳輸入變量組合之預報表現，可發現本研究提出之區域最佳輸入變量組合其預報表現最好。模式建置成果可提供未來長期降雨趨勢資訊，作為抗旱期間相關因應措施之決策輔助參考。
並列摘要
In order to support decision making for preparing drought-resistance actions in advance during the dry period, the study developed the teleconnection-based seasonal rainfall forecasting models for the 18 reservoir watersheds and 3 dam watersheds in Taiwan. The monthly climatic teleconnection indices, including circulation, sea surface temperature, wind field, Niño3, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and antecedent monthly rainfall of watershed were used as the candidates of model input variables and the seasonal rainfall as the output variable. Multiple regression analysis, support vector machine, and random forests were adopted for model construction and different combinations of the input variables were used for finding the optimal combination for each watershed and each forecast-beginning month (form October to March). Comparison results show that the RF-based forecasting models perform the best. Further, for application convenience, the regional optimal teleconnection-based seasonal rainfall forecasting models were developed for northern, central, and southern Taiwan. It reveals that the proposed models perform better than the models which use (1) the antecedent monthly rainfall as input variable and (2) circulation, sea surface temperature, wind field, and Niño3 as input variables.
延伸閱讀
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