- 期刊
臺灣水庫集水區長期雨量暨流量預報之發展
Development of Long-term Rainfall and Inflow Forecasting for Reservoir Watersheds in Taiwan
摘要
長期入流量預報資訊可用以輔助抗旱期間水庫未來蓄水量推估與水情研判，提供主管機關抗旱決策時更為客觀之參考資訊。本文主要介紹臺灣重點水庫集水區長期雨量暨流量預報之發展演進。透過優化中央氣象局長期雨量預報產品結合水文模式，進行水庫與攔河堰長期入流量預報。目前已開發三個版本，各版本主要差異在於採用不同的氣候模式預報產品與降尺度方法。由第一版基於季長期天氣展望進行雨量與溫度繁衍，演進至第二版採用氣候模式（二步法）雨量與溫度預報產品經平地氣象站映射至集水區，再進一步演進至第三版採用全球海氣耦合模式（一步法）雨量與溫度預報產品，由格網點預報值直接降尺度至集水區，同時配合系集優選方法優選系集預報成員，並將降尺度預報值輸入水文模式以進行各水庫與攔河堰未來1至6個月入流量預報。預報效能評析結果顯示：隨版本的演進，流量預報精度亦逐步提升。
並列摘要
The long-term inflow forecasts can be used to estimate the future storage of reservoir to support decision making for preparing drought-resistance actions in advance during the dry period. The article introduces the development and evolution of long-term rainfall and inflow forecasting for Taiwan's key reservoir catchments. By optimizing the long-term rainfall and temperature forecasts of the Central Meteorological Bureau combined with the hydrological model, the long-term inflow forecasts for reservoirs are carried out. Three versions of long-term inflow forecasting have been developed. The main difference among the three versions is the use of different rainfall and temperature forecasts and downscaling methods. The first version uses the seasonal weather outlook to generate rainfall and temperature forecasts. The second version maps the forecasts by TCWB2T2 from the weather stations of flatland to the reservoir catchments. The third version downscales the grid-based forecasts by TCWB1T1 (a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model) to the reservoir catchments. The generated/mapped/downscaled rainfall and temperature forecasts are then input into the hydrological model with an ensemble optimization method to carry out the 1 to 6-months-ahead inflow forecasting for each reservoir. Based on the results of effectiveness evaluation, the forecast accuracy improves with the evolution of version.
參考文獻
延伸閱讀
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