從城市未來學談城市競爭力

Using Futures Scenarios to Anticipate City's Competitive Capacities

陳國華(Kuo-Hua Chen)

《研考雙月刊》 30卷5期 (2006/10) Pp. 42-55

https://doi.org/10.6978/YKSYK.200610.0042

摘要

伴隨著全球化、科技創新與人口高度流動的趨勢，居住於城市的人口已經逼近世界總人口數的一半。因人口高度群聚所產生的對生活方式、社區、環境、經濟和政策的影響將是21世紀人類社會最重大的挑戰之一。本文希冀藉由未來學研究的觀點與方法，探索城市發展過程的關鍵影響因素、結構阻力和希望與想像力。進而建構出多元的城市競爭力情節策略，跳脫一致性的工業城市模式，由城市社區公民共同創造和選擇另類的發展特色、理念以及願景，可以與全球各角落的創意文化社群相互連結與合作，一起為未來世代打造結合知識經濟發展趨勢與充滿期待和想像的優質城市。

關鍵字

未來學 ； 城市 ； 競爭力 ； 情節分析

並列摘要

The number of urban dwellers will equal the number of rural dwellers in the world in recent years, due mostly to the integrative megatrend of globalization, technological innovation and demographic transition. What lies behind this complex phenomenon is that it could become one of the most critical challenges facing the new century. Adopting perspectives and methodologies of futures studies, this research aims at exploring the triangular framework of city development-its driving forces, structural constraints and hopes and imaginations. The major strategy is using futures scenarios to plan for ”think out of box” alternatives. This foresight story of city futures begins with the singular and universal industrial cities in the world, followed by examples of a variety of niche cities and global and smart cities, concluded with the cultural creative multicultural-spiritual cities. Instead of providing a predictive conclusion, this research offers multiple choices for citizens of the coming global civil society.

並列關鍵字

futures studies ； city ； competitiveness ； scenario analysis