臺灣礦業與其他產業及整體經濟之關聯性研究

Aanalysis of interrelationship among the mineral & energy industries, the other industries, and the whole economy in Taiwan

陳家榮(Chia-Yon Chen) ； 吳榮華(Rong-Hwa Wu)

《鑛冶：中國鑛冶工程學會會刊》 30卷4期 (1986/12) Pp. 24-39

https://doi.org/10.30069/MM.198612_30(4).0002

摘要

本研究係以投入產出模式探討臺灣礦業與其他產業及整體經濟之關聯性。主要分析項目有礦業部門之（1）產銷結構變化。（2）關聯分析。（3）影響分析及（4）各產業對礦產品需求分析，並建立短期能源產品需求預測模式。本研究之主要貢獻有：（1）國內首次以投入產出模式針對礦業部門作關聯性研究。（2）建立國內礦產品需求模式之基本資料及短期能源需求預測模式。（3）從供給型投入產出分析發現礦業部門之向前關聯影響大部份均大於整體產業之平均水準，表示礦產品供應短缺，對總體經濟之衝擊影響較諸其他產業為大，而這也闡釋了國父所說：「礦業為工業之根」的真諦。

並列摘要

The purpose of this research is to make an interrelation analysis among the mineral industry, the other industries, and the whole economy in Taiwan. This research includes the following major items: (1) Structure change analysis, (2) Linkage analysis, (3) Impact analysis, (4) Development of the basic framework of the mineral commodity demand model and short-term energy demand forcasting model. The major findings of this researah are as follows: (1) The capacity expanding of China Steel Corporation shows great effect on the input/output structure of metallic minerals sector. The second oil crisis causes change in the input structure of cement industy. (2) The forward linkage effect of all mineral industries are greater as compared with other industries. It means that a disruption of mineral commodity will cast even greater impact on the whole economy. (3) The mineral commodities are widely used by the manufacturing industry. Thus the availability and stability of mineral commodity supply will play an important role in the econmic growth of Taiwan. (4) It is forecast that in 1989, the energy commodities required by Taiwan industrial sectors would be as follows: coal totaled 4.69 million metric tons, oil and its products totaled 14.81 million K. L. O. E., and natural gas amounted to 499 million M^3.