台灣漁產品價格彈性與走私量之實證分析

Price Elasticity and Smuggled Quantity Estimation for Fish Products in Taiwan: An Empirical Analysis of Time Series Data

李家銘(Jie-Min Lee)

《中華農學會報》 8卷2期 (2007/04) Pp. 105-112

https://doi.org/10.6730/JAAC.200704_8(2).0001

摘要

兩岸漁產品交易由來已久，不過自民國76年起台灣宣布解除戒嚴後，兩岸漁產品交易快速增加。爾後，民國82年中國大陸允許指定口岸對台灣進行小額貿易，有關小額貿易管理辦法中，主要以開放第三類產品為主，其中，約有80%集中在漁產品交易，加上走私漁產品之認定易產生爭議，以至兩岸漁產品走私日益猖獗。由於走私進口的漁產品價格較為低廉，種類眾多和新鮮感之優勢，不僅破壞了正常價格秩序，更使本地漁民收益節節虧損，甚至血不無歸，生計艱困。基此，本研究估計考量走私下及未考量走私下的漁產品價格彈性，將考量走私下所估計之漁產品價格彈性扣除未考量走私下漁產品價格彈性，可得出漁產品走私量之價格彈性，再依據每年漁產品價格對漁產品走私量進行推估，分析影響漁產品走私的因素，以作為漁業當局規劃因應對策及兩岸漁業交流決策之參考。研究結果估計出走私漁產品的價格彈性為0.2435，表示漁產品價格上漲10%，將造成漁產品走私量增加2.435%，平均每年漁產品走私量約為24萬噸。由走私漁獲需求函數估計結果發現漁產品價格的上漲，是造成漁產品走私量增加的重要影響因素。

關鍵字

漁產品 ； 價格彈性 ； 走私漁獲量推估

並列摘要

Although the transaction of fish products has long been conducted across the strait, it was not rapidly increased until Ta wan declared an end to martial law in 1987. After then in 1983, in Mainland China, small-scale trace with Taiwan was permitted in the designated ports. Most of the regulations related to the management of small-scale trade are about the openness of Type Ⅲ products, among which 80% are on fish products transaction. Moreover as the identification of smuggled fish products could easily cause disputes, the smuggling of fish products across the strait has become more and more rampart. The strengths of the smuggled fish products in low puce, variety, and novelty not only destroy the normal price order but also cause constant loss and struggling life in the local fishing population. Accordingly, in this research, we estimated the price elasticities of fish products under smuggling and non-smuggling, We get the price elasticities of fish products caused by smuggling amount by deducting price elasticities of non-smuggling fish products from the price elasticities that take smuggling into account, Then the impact of fish product smuggling on the fishery development in Taiwan is analyzed by estimating the amount of smuggled fish products according to the annual prices of the fish products in the hope of providing the findings of this research as a reference for the fishery authority in order for them to propose countermeasure and make decisions about cross Strait fishery exchange. The result from our study showed that the price elasticity of’ smuggled fish products is 0.2435. This estimates that a 10% increase in fish price would cause a 2.435% increase in smuggled fish consumption. From the consumption of the demand function of the smuggled fish product, it's found that increasing the price of fish product is a crucial result in the increasing of fish smuggling.

並列關鍵字

Fish products ； Price elasticities ； Smuggled fish quantity estimation