2008年金融海嘯重創全球經濟,台灣政府在景氣低迷之際,採行在國內未曾實施的消費券政策,欲藉由刺激消費以達到提振景氣的目的。政策推出即引起各界廣泛討論,主要的爭議仍是在消費券發放能誘發多少消費?對振興經濟的效果有多少?因此,本文建立-總體經濟計量模型,探討2009年政府以移轉性支出方式,發放消費券振興經濟之總體效果,並模擬分析不同政策的情境。模擬結果顯示,相較於政府投資與政府消費而言,消費券政策對提升經濟成長的效果較爲有限,第一年約提升經濟成長率0.21%,並在改善所得分配方面較有助益。至於,政府投資與政府消費雖能在第一年有較高的經濟成長,但自第二年後卻反有負向效果;其次,針對消費券實施期間長短的效果比較,發現實施期間縮短使經濟成長較高,但實施期間拉長,家戶的邊際消費傾向較大;最後,比較消費券以租稅與債務融通的效果,發現租稅融通對刺激經濟成長效果較大,此突顯出預算平衡對國民經濟的重要性。
This paper analyzes the effects of consumption vouchers policy on Taiwan economy. The consumption vouchers policy is a type of government transfer, and aims at stimulating domestic demand and economic growth. According to the simulations, we have three findings: first, compare to the government investment and consumption, the transfer payments are ineffective in raising economic growth, but effective in improving income distribution. Second, when consumption vouchers policy is implemented in a shorter period, the effects of stimulating economic growth are better. Thirdly, accounting of the effects of different methods to finance the consumption vouchers plan, the tax-financed transfers can raise economic growth much higher than the debt-financed transfers. This indicates the budget balance is important to enhance economic growth.