奢侈稅與公務員待遇調整之總體計量分析

A Macroeconometric Analysis on Luxury Tax and the Salary Adjustment for Public Servant of Taiwan

劉碧雯(Pi-Wen Liu)

指導教授 ： 林師模

中原大學/商學院/國際貿易研究所/碩士(2011年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu201100833

摘要

我國於今 (2011) 年年中分別實施奢侈稅和公教人員調薪之政策，本研究主要目的在探討這些政策對於台灣總體經濟之影響為何。首先，本研究先藉由經濟理論建立一台灣之總體經濟計量季模型，並用計量方法對各方程式進行估計，再使用Gauss-Seidel 的方法對整個聯立方程組進行求解，並評估模型之預測績效；最後，再利用所估計出之模型進行奢侈稅和公務員待遇調整兩個議題之情境模擬。
根據本研究模擬結果顯示，奢侈稅之實施會使政府相關稅收增加，但也因此造成人民可支配所得減少，進一步排擠民間消費和所得稅稅收；此外，失業率也會略微上升，實質國內生產毛額減少。對於公務員調薪 3% 之政策，人民可支配所得會增加，進而帶動實質民間消費之增加，實質國內生產毛額亦也會同步成長；而藉由所得稅稅收增加，國家稅收也會增加。

關鍵字

總體計量模型 ； 奢侈稅 ； 公務人員調薪

並列摘要

In 2011, Taiwanese government implemented two major policies: Luxury tax and the Salary Adjustment for Public Servant. The main purpose of this thesis is to analyze the effects of these two policies on Taiwan’s macroeconomy. To achieve this goal, first, we applied related economic theories to construct a quarterly macro-econometric model and estimated the equations by econometric methods. Next, we used the Gauss-Seidel method to solve the system of simultaneous equations and evaluated the forecasting performance of the model. Finally, we simulated several scenarios about the two issues using the macro-econometric model.
The simulation results showed that levying luxury tax would increase government tax revenue, but it would also reduce disposable income. Hence, there is a crowd-out effect on private consumption expenditure as well as on income tax revenue. In addition, the policy would also lead to higher unemployment rate. On the other hand, the simulation results for an increase of salary by 3 percent for public servant reveal that the policy would not only increase disposable income but also push up the private consumption expenditure. Furthermore, government tax revenue would increase as a result of the increase in income tax revenue. Putting together, the policy would have a positive effect on real gross domestic product.

並列關鍵字

Macro-econometric model ； luxury tax ； salary adjustment

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