美國次級房貸所衍生的金融風暴,衝擊各國經濟,造成全球經濟衰退,各國政府為挽救經濟,紛紛提出振興經濟方案。我國政府希望透過擴張性財政政策,以促進民間投資、刺激消費及提升我國經濟成長率,因此宣布「振興經濟擴大公共建設投資」及「振興經濟消費券」,其政策之財源皆以特別預算法編列預算,而預算經費來源則皆以舉債的方式來籌措。本研究的目的係希望利用建構總體計量模型 (Macroeconometric model) 表達台灣總體經濟變數之間的相互依存影響關係,以評估政府執行「振興經濟政策」的效果,其中主要模擬政府投資及舉債對民間消費、投資、就業情況等等之影響。 本研究之模擬結果發現,政府發行消費劵可以提升國內經濟,帶動消費成長,也改善2009年失業率的攀升;而國民所得的升高也促使消費者物價上升。另外,政府舉債也使得利率在2009年大幅成長,進而削減了部份消費劵的效果,使民間消費成長幅度縮小,實質貨幣需求的增幅也減少。在貿易方面,國內生產毛額的成長帶動我國商品與服務輸入之成長。至於在政府擴大公共建設的效果方面,結果顯示可以提升我國國內生產毛額,改善民間投資環境及促使民間投資逐年成長,也帶動商品與服務輸入的成長,但是因為政府之大量投資抑制了我國商品與服務輸出,使消費者物價逐年上揚。另外,因為政府的舉債使民間利率上升,排擠了民間食品及非食品消費,在實質貨幣需求方面也因此減少。 雖然兩政策皆可提升我國經濟成長率,但是政策的實施在不同的總體經濟層面上有正面亦有負面效果,因此對於兩者效果的平衡也是政策實施的一大考量。基於此,假如政府以舉債當作其政策財源,則必須配合適當的貨幣政策來平衡舉債所造成之排擠效果,以減緩赤字加深所造成的衝擊。
The onslaught of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis over the past several years has led to a series of shocks to the global economy. To rescue the economy, almost every country has proposed a set of economic vitalization package. In 2008, Taiwanese government announced two major policies: “expanding public investment” and “consumption vouchers”, which are to be financed by issuing bonds. This thesis aims to assess the effectiveness of these economic vitalization policies. To meet this end, a small macro-econometric model for Taiwan was built, which includes commodity market, labor sector, financial sector, government sector as well as some decision variables. The simulation results using our model reveal that “consumption vouchers” policy would encourage private consumption and reduce unemployment rate in 2009. However, “consumption vouchers” policy that financed by issuing bonds will also push up the interest rate, resulting in a crowd-out of a certain part of private consumption and investment. In the case of expanding public investment, the policy would improve gross domestic product and imports, but, again, issuing bonds would also lead to higher interest rate. In all, although both policies have shown to have positive effect on GDP, they would also generate some negative effects to the economy that offset a certain part of the positive effects. For this reason, it is very important for the government to implement some counterpart policies to balance both sides when issuing bonds are chosen as the major source of financing for economic vitalization policy.