上海五國安全合作與中共的角色

The Role of the PRC in the "Shanghai Five"

張雅君(Yac-Hun Chang)

《中國大陸研究》 44卷4期 (2001/04) Pp. 33-55

https://doi.org/10.30389/MCS.200104_44(4).0002

摘要

上海五國安全合作在一九九六年的形成和發展，強化了中共和俄哈吉塔四國的邊境安全和相互信心。由於良好具體成果的支撐，上海五國基本上反映了合作安全理念在亞太地區的成功實踐。上海五國之所以迅速產生具體成果，同中共俄羅斯關係日漸增強具有密切關係；在此一過程中，中共明顯發揮了樂觀其成的推進角色；原因之一是上海五國安全合作具有漸進主義、大國關係、以及雙邊合作性質，利於中共運作；原因之二是中共在上海五國安全合作中具有重要利益。不過，基於功能性的完善化需求，以及俄羅斯和中亞國家內部政策動向的不確定性，上海五國安全合作機制是不斷在變動和發展的，未來可能進一步朝正式化、多邊化和擴大化方向發展，這種發展基本上將使中共因為運作難度提高而陷入困境。最重要的是，中共缺乏足以在經濟層面同四國凝聚高度相互依賴體制的實力。就整個亞太安全形勢來觀察，由於美國在亞太仍居主導性地位，上海五國經驗因此不易如中共期望成為其他多邊安全合一的範例。

關鍵字

安全合作 ； 合作安全 ； 信心建立機制 ； 漸進主義 ； 大國關係

並列摘要

”Shanghai Five” formed in 1996, has apparently strengthened border securities and mutual confidence among five nations. Due to practical achievements in security cooperation, ”Shanghai Five” signify that the ideal of cooperative security advanced in Europe has been smoothly put into practice in the Asia Pacific region. Different from other multilateral cooperation mechanisms, the successful development of ”Shanghai Five” has been closely related to the improvement of Sino-Russia relations after the cold war. Especially important is that the PRC is zealous to promote the development of ”Shanghai Five”. Firstly, the PRC can easily operate ”Shanghai Five” because of the characteristics of incrementalism, bilateralism, and major power relations that ”Shanghai Five” implies. Secondly, the PRC has deep security interests in ”Shanghai Five” However, ”Shanghai Five” will develop along further multilateral and institutional lines in the future. These predictable changes will probably make the PRC lose advantages to manipulate ”Shanghai Five” because the PRC lacks enough economic power to form strong interdependent links with the other four nations. As far as Asian Pacific power relations are concerned, the U.S. still plays a pivotal role in the Asia Pacific region, so impossible is for ”Shanghai Five” to be a role model for Asian nations as the PRC had originally expected.

並列關鍵字

security cooperation ； cooperative security ； confidence building measures ； incrementalism ； major power relations

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