一九九七年亞洲金融風暴後日本、東協與中國大陸互動關係的轉變

Japan, ASEAN and Mainland Chine e Relations after the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis

蔡增家(Tzeng-jia Tsai)

《中國大陸研究》 45卷4期 (2002/07) Pp. 75-99

https://doi.org/10.30389/MCS.200207_45(4).0004

摘要

在去年(二OO一)十一月，東南亞國家協會宣布將在十年 之內與中國大陸成立「東協─中國自由貿易區」。本文的主要論點是日本為東協主要的投資國家，而東協與大陸卻同時為市場競爭者的情況下，東協為何要在既有東協加三的架構之外，另外與中國大陸成立自由貿易區呢？這背後有何結構性因素及策略性的選擇存在呢？這是本文所要探討的重點。本文將從多邊主義、區域主義及ASEAN體制三個面向切入，來分析內外環境改變如何影響東協國家的策略選擇，所謂內環境是指東協體制內成員國，而外環境中則包括東協及日本、中國大陸等國。本文有兩點發現：在內環境轉變中，ASEAN Way的質變下，使得東協亟欲建構一個真正屬於東亞地區的經濟合作組織，而在日本與美國有簽訂美日安保聯盟的情況下，若與日本成立自由貿易區將會讓美國再度干預亞太地區的經濟事務，而與中國大陸合作則無此層顧慮；在外環境轉變中，日本國內長期的經濟衰退，將會影響日本對東協的官方開發援助及海外直接投資的金額，同時近幾年中國大陸經濟的掘起，使得中國大陸有取代日本成為亞太地區經濟的龍頭之勢。在這些內外因素的交錯下，都市促成東協採取修正型ASEAN Way式的區域主義，不再像過去只和日本、南韓進行經濟合作，而必須同時與中國大陸成立自由貿易區，這是東協多方位合作的策略選擇。

關鍵字

跨層次分析；多邊主義；區域主義；東南亞國家協會；東協─中國大陸自由貿易區

並列摘要

In Nov. 2001, ASEAN announced the establishment of an “ASEAN-China free trade area” with Mainland China within ten years. The main issue in this paper is that Japan is the main investor in ASEAN, which is the competitor against Japan and Mainland China in the market, so we will attempt to find the reason why ASEAN wanted to establish this free trade area with Mainland China in addition to the accomplished structure of ASEAN with it’s dialogue partners-Japan, South Korea, and Mainland China.
This aim of this paper is to understand what the structural factors and strategic choices were in this decision. We will analyze how the three points of view-multilateralism, regionalism, and the framework of ASEAN-influenced the strategic choices of the ASEAN nations during the change in circumstances in the region. We define the internal circumstances as the member nations of ASEAN and the external circumstances as those countries in ASEAN, Japan, and Mainland China.
First, considering the internal circumstances, we find that under the qualitative changes of ASEAN’s Ways, ASEAN wanted to urgently establish a “real” economically cooperative organization belonging to East Asia. They were not concerned that the USA would interfere in the economic affairs of the Asia-Pacific if ASEAN established a free trade area with Japan in which the country singed a Joint US-Japan contractual security alliance with the USA when it’s ASEAN partner is Mainland China.
Second, considering the external circumstances, the long running economic recession in Japan will influence the support of ASEAN’s development and the amount of foreign investment. At the same time, the rise in economic power in Mainland China creates an opportunity for Mainland China to replace Japan as the foremost leader of the Asia-Pacific region. ASEAN has been pushed into taking on a modified regionalism of the ASEAN Way under the interaction of the internal and the external factors.
Finally, while no longer proceeding with economic cooperation with Japan and South Korea, they will have to establish a free trade area with Mainland China at the same time. That is ASEAN’s strategic in multilateral cooperation.

並列關鍵字

Ecological Inference ； Multilaterialism ； Regionalism ； Association of South East Asian Nations(ASEAN) ； ASEAN-Mainland China free trade area

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