中國大陸財政支出與經濟成長－因果關係的驗證

Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in Mainland China

魏艾(Ai Wei) ； 曾聖文(Sheng-Wen Tseng)

《中國大陸研究》 46卷6期 (2003/11) Pp. 137-162

https://doi.org/10.30389/MCS.200311_46(6).0006

摘要

本研究從財政支出結構的觀點，分析大陸財政支出與經濟成長間的長期動態因果關係，以瞭解各種不同功能的財政支出對於經濟成長的影響，並檢證大陸財政支出與經濟成長是否支持華格納法則(Wagner’s Law)。本研究以中國大陸一九五二~二○○一年的長期時間序列資料，應用T oda and Yamamoto 所發展改良，經由Rambaldi and Doran 拓展出來的Granger No-Causality Test 因果檢定方法，來檢證大陸財政支出與經濟成長間的動態因果關係。本文主要研究發現為：(一)大陸財政全支出、財政核心支出、中央財政支出、以及地方財政支出與經濟成長間具單向因果關係，其中財政核心支出、中央財政支出、以及地方財政支出對經濟成長具正向影響，大陸財政全支出對經濟成長具復向影響；(二) 在個別功能性財政支出方面，中國大陸經濟建設支出對經濟成長具有單項負面因果關係，社會文教支出以及國防建設支出與經濟成長間具單項正面因果關係，行政管理支出與經濟成長間具雙向負面因果關係，其他補貼支出與經濟成長間具雙向正面因果關係；(三) 中國大陸的財政支出與經濟成長間並不支持華格納法則，即大陸金計的持續成長並未導致大陸的財政支出相對應的擴張。

關鍵字

中國大陸 ； 財政支出 ； 經濟成長 ； Granger No-Causality ； 華格納法則(wagner's Law)

並列摘要

The purpose of this paper is to analyza the causality between China’s government expenditure and economic growth and to examine Wagner’s Law of pulic expenditure with the time-series data of 1953 to 2001. The Granger No-Causality procedure developed by aToda and Yamamoto (1995) in a vector autoregression (VAR) model is applied to test the causal link between government expenditures with different definitions and economic growth. The empirical results show the following. First, the causality between the total,core, central, and local government expenditures and economic growth are a one-way causal link. The core, central, and local government expenditures have positive effects on economic growth. Where as total government expenditure has a negative effect. Secondly, the causality between government expenditure and economic growth in Mainland China does not support Wagner’s law.

並列關鍵字

China ； Government Expenditure ； Economic Growth ； Granger No-Causality ； Wagner's Law

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