美、中政府與市場在人民幣匯率改革中的角色：2003-2005

The Roles of Governments and Market in the Reform of RMB Exchange Rate-2003-2005

趙文志(Wen-Chih Chao)

《中國大陸研究》 51卷4期 (2008/12) Pp. 51-88

https://doi.org/10.30389/MCS.200812_51(4).0003

摘要

本文是以人民幣匯率作為研究個案，探討人民幣匯率與匯率體制是否受到國際政治壓力？其次是國際政治如何對人民幣施壓？第三是中國政府與決策者如何反應？第四是市場如何反應與考量國際壓力對匯率的影響。
研究結果顯示中國人民幣的發展，一開始中國政府主要思考因素是建基於國內經濟如何發展與改革之上，匯率水平的訂定是根據中國國內需求與國內政治目的而決定。隨著中國逐漸融入國際貿易體系，不斷累積對外國貿易順差（最大來源主要是美國），引起外國的不滿而施壓。中國基於國內經濟發展與政治穩定的考量始終不同意國際社會的要求。但面對貿易失衡狀況愈加嚴重，以美國為首的國際壓力不斷加大施壓力道，中國最後還是改變匯率體制為管理是浮動匯率制度並調升人民幣匯率水平2.1%。藉此來滿足國際社會的要求，卻又不至於對中國經濟產生過大的衝擊。因此，這顯示國際政治因素在人民幣的案例上，對其匯率體制與名目匯率產生影響，促使中國放棄實施多年的匯率體制。

關鍵字

人民幣 ； 國際政治因素 ； 中國政府 ； 美國政府

並列摘要

This article examines relations between international politics and validity of exchange in the case of Chinese currency, RMB, and attempts to answer the following questions. First of all, is the exchange rate of RMB and its regime affected by international politics? Secondly, how does the international politics affect the exchange rate and regime of Chinese currency? Third, how should the market behavior respond to interactions between the international political actor and Chinese government? Lastly, how does Chinese government respond to the pressure from the international community and market?
The author argues that the exchange rate and regime of RMB is affected by the pressure of international politics; especially from U.S. government. Chinese government principally made strategies and decisions with an aim to maintain sustained growth of Chinese economy. At first, Chinese government refused to reform the exchange rate and regime of RMB. Yet, owing to the growing trade surplus with foreign countries, particularly from U.S., Chinese government faces challenging pressure. It is difficult for Chinese government to sustain de facto pegged exchange rate regime and to integrate the strategy into international trade system as a result. Accordingly, on July 21, 2005, the Chinese government eventually announced to change the exchange rate system from dollar peg system to a managed floating exchange rate regime. This indicates that international politics has tremendous influence on the exchange rate and regime of RMB, urging Chinese government to abandon the pegged exchange rate system.

並列關鍵字

RMB ； international politics ； Chinese government ； U.S. government

參考文獻

中國人民銀行

中國人民銀行

中國人民銀行

中國工商銀行

中國人民銀行