中共對臺政策之理性與組織過程分析：以2002－2010年的政策變化為例

Analysis of Rational Actors and the Organizational Process of PRC's Taiwan Policy between 2002 and 2010

游智偉(Chih-Wei Yu) ； 陳政一(Cheng-I Chen)

《中國大陸研究》 54卷4期 (2011/12) Pp. 57-88

https://doi.org/10.30389/MCS.201112_54(4).0003

摘要

近年中共對臺政策不再以文攻武嚇為主，反以軟性交流或讓步為政策主軸，其於2009年不阻擋臺灣以「中華臺北」名義參與世界衛生大會更被視為兩岸關係的里程碑，然問題在於中共為何讓步？為何放寬其對「一個中國」原則的解釋？本文認為上述變化可歸結於中共在有限理性下重新考量國家統一和經濟發展的重要性所致，藉和平發展的提出重構國家發展路徑，將發展經濟視為國家最高利益，而和平發展則為國家統一的先期工作，並藉反分裂國家法將對臺政策重心從促統轉向反獨，目標從改變現狀轉為維持現狀，但這些變化卻影響中共各部門執行層級原奉行的標準作業程序，使其臺辦系統承受其他系統的壓力，而在2008年下半年後不斷拋出政治議題，但這樣的情景在2010年底後消失，在領導人有限理性的意志下，「穩中求進」成為當前大陸對臺政策主要的綱領依據。

關鍵字

國家利益 ； 有限理性 ； 中共對臺政策 ； 兩岸關係

並列摘要

Recently, it seemed that PRC's Taiwan policy had been changed, characterized by Taiwan's successful participation in the World Health Assembly (WHA) in 2009. The changes can be described by ”bounded rationality”, as PRC reconsidered the priority of national interests amongst state unification and economic development through peaceful means. With the formulation of the ”Anti-Secession Law (ASL),” the focus and purpose of PRC's Taiwan Policy had been transformed from ”promoting unification” and ”changing Status Quo” to ”opposing independence” and “maintaining Status Quo.” Therefore, the most significant meaning in the ASL was that the ”One China Principle” had been loosened. The standard operation process held by each governmental branch had also been influenced by these changes, causing the Taiwan Affairs Office System (TAOS) to experience added pressure, especially in foreign affairs and commerce in the WHA and ECFA cases. TAOS, as a result of such, had proposed and pressed Taiwan to engage in political issues in the second half of 2008. However, the circumstance disappeared at the end of 2010 when China's leaders had re-confirmed the ”proactive” principle (wen-jung-chiou-jin) as the basic outline of PCR's Taiwan policy.

並列關鍵字

national interests ； bounded rationality ； PRC's Taiwan policy ； cross-Strait relations

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