開發中國家能否受惠資本自由化？

Can Developing Countries Benefit from Capital Liberalization?

曾明煙(Ming-Yen Tseng)

《國家發展研究》 8卷1期 (2008/12) Pp. 91-129

https://doi.org/10.6164/JNDS.8-1.3

摘要

資本自由化爲開發中國家發展政策的重要選項，然而，實證研究支持資本自由化與經濟成長有正相關者固所在多有，但認爲兩者關聯性低甚至有負面效果者更不在少數。本文透過一個跨世代模型，探討資本自由化對每人產出及消費之影響，以及經濟參數與調整速度間之關係，最後以台灣之資料進行模型校準分析。本文的主要發現爲：第一，開發中國家資本自由化是否能提升其每人所得及消費，端視金融市場之效率而定，此一發現可以回應主張經濟自由化過程中不應忽略自由化順序的論調；第二，資本流出時，如引起之利率上升幅度相對較小，則每人產出及消費仍不致下降；第三，開發中國家資本開放程度對調整速度影響不大，因此，自由化效果需要相當長的時間才會完全實現；最後，如產出之資本彈性越大則調整速度越慢，印證了多數發展經濟學家所倡議之收斂理論。

關鍵字

資本自由化 ； 收斂理論 ； 穩定狀態 ； 調整速度 ； 自由化順序

並列摘要

Capital liberalization is an important policy option in developing countries. There is no difficulty in finding empirical evidence in support of a positive correlation between the openness of capital account and economic growth. A great number of studies conclude low linkage or even negative effects though.
An overlapping generation model is built in this paper to derive the effects of capital liberalization on per capita income and consumption. In addition, the relationship between economic parameters and speed of adjustment are also unveiled. A model calibration exercise has been done on the basis of Taiwan's economic data. Several findings can be concluded as following: First, whether capital liberalization in a developing country lifts up its per capita income and consumption or not, lies heavily in the efficiency of its financial market. This result echoes the proposition that the issue of optimal sequencing can not be left aside in the process of economic liberalization. Second, income and consumption per efficient unit of labor may not decline in the case of capital outflow as long as the magnitude of increase in domestic interest rate that follows is lower than that of capital outflow. Third, the degree of capital openness in a developing country can only exert a minor impact on the speed of adjustment toward the new steady state. Therefore, it takes a long time for the effects of liberalization to be fully materialized. Last but not least, a higher output elasticity of capital implies a lower rate of adjustment. This result lends support to the convergence theory initiated by most development economists.

並列關鍵字

capital liberalization ； convergence theory ； steady state ； speed of adjustment ； sequencing of liberalization

參考文獻

毛維凌、王高文()。

李秀雲(1992)。經濟成長、國內外景氣波動與小型開放體系之貿易收支－台灣的實證分析。國立台灣大學經濟研究所。

莊奕琦、趙振瑛、曹添旺、賴景昌、楊建成主編(1999)。經濟成長、所得分配與制度演化。中央研究院中山人文社會科學研究所。

張雅棻、官德星(2005)。總要素生產力與經濟成長：台灣的實證研究。經濟法制論叢。36，111-154。

黃仁德、趙振瑛(1997)。人力資本對台灣經濟成長貢獻的評估。勞資關係論叢。6，119-140。