A Three-World Model of Political Communication: Public Opinion, Elite Opinion and Public Policy in Taiwan, 1996-2000

政治傳播的三個世界模型：台灣民意、菁英意見與公共政策之關係，1996-2000

余致力(Chilik Yu)

《中國行政評論》 15卷1期 (2005/12) Pp. 29-54

https://doi.org/10.6635/cpar.2005.15(1).02

摘要

台灣政府的政策抉擇與一般民意及菁英意見之一致程度究竟有多高，是本文所擬探討的研究問題。透過蒐集1996年至2000年在台灣針對113項政策議題所進行的549則政策民調資料，本研究比較一般民眾的意見與政府的政策抉擇之一致程度，其結果顯示，有48%的政策抉擇與多數民眾的偏好一致。本研究亦蒐集了同時期以菁英為對象，針對87項政策議題所進行的189則意見調查資料，經分析比較發現，有54%的政策抉擇與多數菁英之偏好一致。將這兩組資料相結合，本研究界定出41項政策議題，在1996-2000年間曾經同時針對一般民眾與菁英進行意見調查。針對這41項有明確民眾意見與菁英意見的政策議題，本研究分析發現：（一）政府政策與多數民眾及多數菁英的意見一致者，共有20項，佔49%；（二）政府政策與多數民眾意見一致但與多數菁英意見不一致者，共有6項，佔15%；（三）政府政策與多數菁英意見一致但與多數民眾意見不一致者，共計5項，佔12%；（四）政府政策與多數民眾及多數菁英的意見均不一致者，共計10項，佔24%。依據上述研究結果，本研究建構出一個「三個世界模型」以描述與解釋台灣政策形成與政治傳播的現象。在台灣的政策形成與政治傳播應該是有三個世界－民眾(the public)、菁英(the elite)與掌權者(the leadership echelons)，而三者間的互動關係，為台灣各項政策抉擇描繪出一幅複雜的圖像。

關鍵字

調適 ； 發展行政 ； 行政發展 ； 省縣自治法 ； 凍省 ； 三元體系

並列摘要

To what extent have the policy choices of the Taiwan government been consistent with the opinions of the public and the elite? Using the results of 549 policy opinion surveys, public opinion was compared with actual policy decisions on 113 issues from 1996 through 2000. Public policy decisions were consistent with the preferences of the majority of the public on 48 percent of the cases. As for the comparison between elite opinion and public policy, this research collected data from 189 policy opinion surveys on 87 issues, again from 1996 through 2000. Public policy decisions were consistent with the preferences of the majority of the elite on 54 percent of the cases. By combining these data, this research identified 41 issues on which both public and elite opinion surveys have been conducted and found: (1) government decisions were consistent with the preferences of the majority of both the public and elite on 20 cases (about 49 percent); (2) government decisions on 6 cases (about 15 percent) were consistent with the preferences of the majority of the public but not consistent with those of the majority of the elite; (3) government decisions on 5 cases (about 12 percent) were consistent with the preferences of the majority of the elite but not consistent with the majority of public opinion; (4) government decisions on 10 cases (about 24 percent) were inconsistent with the preferences of the majority of both the elite and of the public. Since government decisions were made by the leadership echelons, this paper develops a three-world model to describe and explain policy formulation and political communication in Taiwan: the public, the elite, and the leadership echelons together paint a complicated picture of preference consistency on various policy issues.

並列關鍵字

Three-World Model ； Political Communication ； Public Opinion ； Elite Opinion ； Public Policy ； Taiwan Studies