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The Study of Democratic Progressive Party's Nomination Institution for Public Officials Candidates (1989-2004): Decision, Flexibility and Change

民進黨公職候選人提名制度之研究(1989-2004):決策、彈性與調整

摘要


本文旨在探究民進黨自1989年制定「公職候選人提名條例」以來的修訂過程與原因;同時亦對民進黨為陳水扁參選2000總統,另行訂定「2000總統、副總統候選人提名條例」的彈性安排之過程做一探索。作者整合系統模型與新制度主義的論點,形成一個分析架構以協助觀察此兩個研究主題。 全文結構包含四部份。第一部份由作者提出一個分析架構以觀察研究主題;第二部份則討論民進黨「公職候選人提名條例」形成與修訂的歷史;第三部份探討其「2000總統、副總統候選人提名條例」的源起以及所造成的後果;最後為結論。 主要發現與結論如下。首先,民進黨的「公職候選人提名條例」修訂路徑與作者分析架構的論點一致,亦即制度的變遷主要是因應黨內的新生需求,但是確實的變遷路徑與運作則是由受到舊制度的既得利益者所影響;其次,推動新制度最力的黨內人士大多都是預期新制所帶來的可能利得(包括對黨以及其個人),此由民進黨的「2000總統、副總統候選人提名條例」形成之過程以及2000總統選舉後的利益分配可得到印證;再者,民進黨將民調放入提名制度中的政策選擇已經產生了路徑依賴現象;最後,作者也對民進黨的「公職候選人提名條例」未來面臨的可能問題與走向作出初步的預測。

並列摘要


This article intends to study the trajectory of modification of DPP's ”Regulations on the nomination of public officials candidates” since 1989. In addition, the authors will track down the establishment of DPP's ”Regulations governing the nomination of presidential and vice-presidential candidates in the year of 2000”. In order to help authors observe these subjects, a framework integrating system model and the new institutionalism is suggested in this article. The article is divided into four sections. The authors will first suggest a broad analytical framework, which helps us observing and explaining the change or creation of nomination institutions in political parties. Second, the formulation and adjustment of DPP's ”Regulations on the nomination of public officials candidates” will be discussed. Third, we will explore why the DPP's ”Regulations governing the nomination of presidential and vice-presidential candidates in the year of 2000” was established and its subsequent impacts. Conclusion is the last part. Major findings are: 1) the path of the change of the DPP's nomination institution is consistent with our arguments. New rules are created primarily in response to new needs inside the party, but the actual path and operation are shaped by the interests holders of the old rules. 2) Those who advocate new rules enthusiastically may be explained by the fact that they foresee the expected payoffs from taking shape the new rules. It is especially true if we explore the origin of the ”Regulations governing the nomination of presidential and vice-presidential candidates in the year of 2000.” 3) The incremental changes of weight of the opinion polls in DPP's party primary also support the argument that once a new rule is set, it will limit the course of actions that actors may choose. 4) The authors also made some predictions on what would happen to the DPP's ”Regulations on the nomination of public officials candidates.”

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