樂生事件與新莊捷運線制定之因果關係分析：路徑依賴觀點

Research on the Causal Relationship between the Lo-Sheng Case and the Formulation of the Xin-Juang MRT Line: A Path Dependency Perspective

陳恆鈞(Hen-Chin Chen) ； 江慧萍(Hui-Ping Chiang)

《東吳政治學報》 28卷3期 (2010/09) Pp. 129-185

https://doi.org/10.6418/SJPS.201009.0129

摘要

本文旨在運用路徑依賴觀點，探討樂生事件與新莊捷運線制定之因果關係。探討問題主要聚焦於樂生院在何種情況下被選為捷運機廠預定地？影響新莊捷運線制定的關鍵因素有哪些？這些關鍵因素是否具有相關性？以及此些關鍵因素是否會影響樂生院附近里民對樂生院拆除與否的態度？
運用的研究途徑包括質化與量化：先依據立意抽樣法與主要參與者進行實地訪談。之後，交叉分析訪談結果，整理出影響的關鍵因素，同時將事件發展關鍵因素予以結合，繪出路徑模型圖，並用路徑依賴觀點建立研究假設，探究變數之間的因果關係。最後進行因素分析與結構方程式的統計分析。
研究發現影響新莊捷運線制定的主因為：(1)關鍵時刻的選擇，(2)制度的重製以及(3)反應序列。其因果關係為：(1)關鍵時刻與制度重製之間的關係獲得驗證，(2)制度重製與反應序列之間的關係並未獲得驗證，(3)關鍵時刻、反應序列與 樂生事件行為改變程度之間的關係獲得驗證。

關鍵字

樂生事件 ； 新莊捷運線 ； 歷史制度論 ； 路徑依賴 ； 結構方程式

並列摘要

This paper mainly analyzes the causal relationship between the Lo-Sheng case and the formulation of the Xin-Juang MRT Line in terms of a path-dependency perspective. The analyzing questions include: factors making Lo-Sheng become the construction location of the MRT; factors influencing the formulation of the Xin-Juang MRT Line; and the extent to which the stakeholders changed.
This paper adopts both quantitative and qualitative methods to explore the opinions held by stakeholders. First of all, this paper applies documentary analysis and pre-interviews with the main stakeholders. In addition, it also applies the core concepts to design the outline of the interview. Finally, the paper further uses quantitative methods, including factor analysis and structural equation models, to explain the results of the questionnaire's investigation.
The findings indicate that the key factors affecting the formulation of the Xin-Juang MRT Line include critical juncture, institutional reproduction, and reactive sequence. In addition, we found the following regarding the causal relationship of the development of the case: 1. the relationship between critical juncture and institutional reproduction is valid; 2. the relationship between institutional reproduction and reactive sequence is invalid; 3. the relationship among critical juncture, reactive sequence, and the extent to which the behavior toward the case changed is valid.

並列關鍵字

Lo-Sheng case ； Xin-Juang MRT line ； historical institutionalism ； path-dependency ； structural equation model

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