美國重返亞洲對中日兩國戰略競爭的影響（2011-2016）－安全困境理論的分析視野

Examining the Impact of the U.S. Return to Asia on Sino-Japanese Strategic Competition (2011-2016)-A Perspective of the Security Dilemma Theory

陳亮智(Liang-chih Evans Chen)

《歐美研究》 47卷4期 (2017/12) Pp. 471-527

https://doi.org/10.7015/JEAS.201712_47(4).0003

摘要

美國重返亞洲對中日戰略競爭造成什麼影響？本文認為，中日兩國的戰略競爭是隨著美國重返亞洲而迅速地走向惡化。原先美日同盟所具備之「嚇阻中國及北韓武力威脅」與「壓制日本再軍事化」的雙重作用，一方面正被中國迅速的軍備擴張所突破，另一方面則是被日本安全政策的改變所挑戰。其關鍵乃是北京在經濟與軍事上的崛起。此發展已悄然地改變Thomas Christensen 於1999 年所提出的論點——美日同盟的建立可以降低中日之間的安全困境問題，並削弱雙方發生軍備競賽、軍事衝突、戰爭的可能性。

關鍵字

重返亞洲 ； 戰略競爭 ； 安全困境 ； 美日同盟 ； 軍備競賽

並列摘要

What is the impact of the U.S. return to Asia on Sino-Japanese strategic competition? This paper argues that as Washington pivots to the Asia-Pacific, situation of their competition deteriorates quickly. Previously, the U.S.-Japan alliance, as described in Thomas Christensen’s theory in 1999, possessed dual deterrence and was able to preserve peace and stability in East Asia-deterring military threats from China and North Korea, andpreventing the remilitarialization of Japan. Currently, however, these functions have been disrupted by China’s military modernization and challenged by Japan’s security transformation. The key to this situation is Beijing’s rise, economically and militarily, in recent years. This development is subtly undermining Christensen’s 1999 argument that the U.S.-Japan alliance could resolve problems associated with the China-Japan security dilemma and lower the likelihood of arms races, military confrontations, and war between these two nations.

並列關鍵字

return to Asia ； strategic competition ； security dilemma ； U.S.-Japan alliance ； arms races

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