從中國大陸「圍臺軍演」論美「中」大國競爭下我國家安全的新思考

New thinking on my country's security under the competition between "China" and the United States from the perspective of the CCP's "Taiwan Encirclement Military Exercise"

胡敏遠(Hu, Ming-Yuan)

《展望與探索月刊》 21卷1期 (2023/01) Pp. 29-58

摘要

日前，中國大陸對我國進行「圍臺軍演」與實彈射擊演習，實際上是實踐其「區域拒止」戰略，用以嚇阻美國及外部勢力停止在臺灣問題上的政治干預。大陸「區域拒止」戰略的實踐，又與「中」、美在亞太地區的大國博弈息息相關，美「中」大國競爭的勝負也關乎我國國家安全及東亞地區的穩定。有關臺海的衝突與穩定實為美、「中」大國博弈的攻防焦點，亦為兩大國都輸不起的一場鬥爭。我國面對大陸不斷的軍事壓迫，戰略層級上必須思考若沒有外部勢力干預或外軍支援下，我國國家安全戰略應該如何面對未來大陸的軍事脅迫，政府應重新思考如何增強國家與國際的連結與新軍事戰略的具體作法，較能有效的保護國家安全。

關鍵字

圍臺軍演 ； 大國競爭 ； 區域拒止 ； 國家安全戰略

並列摘要

Recently, Mainland China conducted military exercises around Taiwan and live-fire drills. These exercises and drills are part and parcel of its anti-access/ area denial (or A2/AD) strategies, aiming to deter political interference imposed by the US and other external powers on cross-strait frictions. Furthermore, the practice of A2/AD strategies by Mainland China is closely related to the great power competition between the US and China in the Asia-Pacific region. The outcome of the competition will markedly affect the national security of Taiwan and stability of East Asia. Conflicts and stability of cross-strait relations are de facto focuses of the US-China competition, in which neither can afford to lose. In the face of military pressure inflicted by Mainland China, the strategic considerations of Taiwan must preconceive circumstances where we have no access to interference or military aid from external powers. The considerations should include how our national security strategies can cope with military threats of Mainland China in the future. Taiwan government should also reconsider how to reinforce our connections to the international community and concrete measures for new military strategies, so as to protect our national security more effectively.

並列關鍵字

Chinese military exercises around Taiwan ； great power competition ； anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) ； national security strategies