國際油價崩跌對石油產業之衝擊分析

The Impact Analysis of the Collapse of International Oil Prices on the Petroleum Industry

林茂文(Maw-Wen Lin)

《石油季刊》 56卷2期 (2020/06) Pp. 1-30

摘要

新型冠狀病毒肺炎（COVID-19）疫情影響石油需求，加上儲油空間疑慮，國際油價在2020年4月經歷了一場噩夢，期貨油價跌到史無前例的負值後，起起落落仍沒有明顯的改善，國際大石油公司公布2020年第1季財報出現鉅額虧損。原油被稱為「大宗商品之王」，其所衍伸的產業眾多，不僅可以生產汽、柴油等燃料，還可以生產6,000多種化工產品，本次期貨油價暴跌至「負油價」所帶來之產業傳導效應也將隨之突顯。石油產業大致劃分為上游探採與油田設備服務、中游石油煉化，以及下游石油化工三個環節，所受影響又各不相同，反射到資本市場上亦是如此。全球正面臨著特殊情況，COVID-19疫情危機影響世界經濟並造成重大不確定性以及石油市場危機促使油價急劇下跌的局面，2020年5月主要產油國大幅減產，油價也未見起色，未來石油產業的發展情勢仍有待持續觀察。本篇報告首先說明全球原油蘊藏分佈與供需分析，特別提示疫情對原油供需失衡的嚴重影響，其次探討國際油價變動趨勢，尤其是石油市場發生史上第一次價格變負的震撼全球怪事，然後分析原油價格崩跌之衝擊、國際大油公司2020年第1季的營運檢討與未來展望，最後，研析這場疫情大流行將成為世界經濟與石化產業未來發展的重要轉折點，石油公司必當深思該如何因應綠色轉型與氣候變遷，以朝永續性發展與合理化經營目標的途徑邁進。

關鍵字

石油蘊藏量 ； 原油供需 ； 國際原油價格 ； 原油期貨價格 ； 石油產業 ； 綠色轉型

並列摘要

The New Coronary Pneumonia (COVID-19) epidemic affects oil demand. In addition to the doubts about oil storage space, international oil prices experienced a nightmare in April 2020. After the futures oil price fell to an unprecedented negative value, its ups and downs have not improved significantly. Oil companies announced huge losses in the first quarter of 2020. Crude oil is known as ＂the king of commodities＂. It has many industries that can produce not only fuels such as gasoline and diesel, but also more than 6,000 chemical products. The futures oil price plummeted to ＂negative oil price＂. The conduction effect of the industry will also be highlighted. The petroleum industry is roughly divided into three links: upstream exploration and oilfield equipment services, midstream petroleum refining, and downstream petrochemicals, which are affected differently, as are reflected in the capital market. The world is facing special circumstances. The new coronary pneumonia epidemic crisis has affected the world economy and caused major uncertainties. The oil market crisis has caused a sharp drop in oil prices. In May 2020, major oil-producing countries sharply reduced production, and oil prices have not shown signs of improvement. The future development of the petroleum industry remains to be observed. This report first explains the global crude oil reserves, distribution and supply-demand analysis, especially reminds of the serious impact of the epidemic on the crude oil supply-demand imbalance. Secondly, it discusses the trend of international oil price changes, especially the first time in the oil market that prices have become negative. The impact of crude oil price collapse, the review and future prospects of the operation of international oil companies in the first quarter of 2020, and finally, the analysis of this epidemic pandemic will become an important turning point in the future development of the world economy and petrochemical industry. Be sure to think deeply about how to respond to green transformation and climate change, and move towards sustainable development and rationalized business goals.

並列關鍵字

Petroleum Reserves ； Crude Oil Supply and Demand ； International Crude Oil Prices ； Crude Oil Futures Prices ； Petroleum Industry ； Green Transformation