國際油價上漲的經濟影響評估

黃宗煌 ； 陳谷汎 ； 林師模

《台灣經濟論衡》 4卷6期 (2006/06) Pp. 1-46

並列摘要

This paper sets up a CGE model for a perfectly competitive market, based on the model of Devarajan, Lewis and Robinson (1991), and then sets up a model for an imperfectly competitive market, with reference to the methods of setting for scale economy in Hosoe, Gasawa and Hashimoto (2004) and Abayasiri-Silva and Horridge (1998) and for pricing in Francois (1998). The paper uses these two models to evaluate the impact of oil-price rises on Taiwan's macro-economy and industries. The research results indicate that, when scale economy and imperfect competition pricing method are taken into account together, the impact of international oil-price rise is significantly higher than the evaluation result of a traditional CGE model. However, when only imperfect competition is taken into account and scale economy disregarded, the degree of impact differs little from that of a traditional CGE model. In overall terms, the results of estimations in this paper indicate that every 10% increase in the price of oil will reduce real GDP by 0.016~0.019%. This is a more moderate level of impact than was forecast in the foreign literature in the early phase of rising oil process, which demonstrates that this wave of demand-pull oil-price rises will have a less serious impact on Taiwan's real GDP than had been expected.