Managerial Overconfidence, the Odds of Completing a Merger, and Post-Merger Performance

管理者過度自信、完成購併機率與購併後績效

許培基(Pei-Gi Shu) ； 葉銀華(Yin-Hua Yeh) ； 邱琦倫(Chyi-Lun Chiou) ； 王宛婷(Wan-Ting Wang)

《證券市場發展季刊》 25卷2期 (2013/06) Pp. 129-160

https://doi.org/10.6529/RSFM.2013.25(2).4

摘要

本研究主張，管理者過度自信為影響完成購併機率之關鍵因素。以報章雜誌關鍵字建構管理者過度自信指標的結果發現，購併公司管理者過度自信與完成購併機率正相關，而被併公司管理者過度自信與完成購併機率負相關。本研究的結論適用於三套樣本；主併公司為台灣上市公司、被併公司為台灣上市公司、主併與被併公司皆為台灣上市公司。研究進一步發現，管理者過度自信與短期宣告報酬負相關，顯示市場投資者對於管理者過度自信給予較低的評價。管理者過度自信亦與購併後長期績效負相關。本研究結果超越直覺的推論；管理者因過度自信而支付較高購併溢酬，進而提高購併完成的機率。本研究發現，管理者過度自信與購併溢酬二者皆會影響購併完成的機率，且與購併溢酬無關的管理者過度自信，亦會影響購併完成的機率。最後，本研究發現，公司治理會弱化管理者過度自信與購併完成機率的正向關係。

關鍵字

管理者過度自信 ； 購併

並列摘要

We postulate that the level of managerial overconfidence is a critical factor influencing the likelihood of completing a merger. Using keywords in press portrayals to gauge managerial overconfidence (Malmendier and Tate, 2005b) we find that the managerial overconfidence of acquiring (target) firms is positively (negatively) related with the odds of completing a merger. The results hold for three datasets: acquiring firms listed in Taiwan, target firms listed in Taiwan, and both acquiring firms and target firms listed in Taiwan. The negative correlation between managerial overconfidence and abnormal returns around the time of the announcement shows the market lends little credence to such overconfidence. Managerial overconfidence is also detrimental to long-run post-merger performance measures. Our results go beyond the intuitive inference that managerial overconfidence is positively correlated with merger premium and therefore with the likelihood of completing a merger. We find that both managerial overconfidence and merger premium have significant effects on the odds of completing a merger, and that managerial overconfidence when being isolated from merger premium significant affects the likelihood of merger completion. We also find that corporate governance weakens the positive association between managerial overconfidence and the likelihood of completing a merger.

並列關鍵字

Managerial Overconfidence ； Mergers

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