舉辦亞洲運動會對主辦國總體經濟效果的跨期評估

A longitudinal assessment on the hosting countries' macroeconomic effects through hosting Asian Games

陳天賜(Tien-Tze Chen) ； 林惠文(Huei-Wen Lin) ； 呂惠富(Huei-Fu Lu)

《體育學報》 51卷3期 (2018/09) Pp. 373-386

https://doi.org/10.3966/102472972018095103008

摘要

緒論：主辦大型運動賽會已成為現今許多國家的全球化戰略，過去研究認為大型賽會可為主辦國帶來實質且重大的經濟與非經濟效益，許多城市也因此投入大量的資源來爭辦大型賽會。儘管大型運動賽會的影響力與日俱增，但對亞洲國家而言，究竟舉辦亞洲運動會是否可視為主辦國總體經濟發展的正向代表訊號，仍有待長期的研究加以釐清。方法：延續過去文獻對主辦大型運動賽會經濟效果的研究焦點，以1951年至2014年為研究期間，納入過去各屆亞運主辦國為研究對象，透過總體經濟次級資料的蒐集，導入動態追蹤資料分析進行跨期實證。結果：實證結果顯示除了亞運會當期主辦國有正向就業成長效果外，其餘各項長期總體經濟效果包括實質GDP、實質投資及國際貿易成長皆無統計上的顯著性。結論：透過亞運會主辦國並無法如預期般實現大部分的長期正向總體經濟效果，也隱含期望舉辦類似亞運會的大型賽會以促進國家經濟發展可能是一種迷思，即使對於開發中國家亦然。此研究結果期望可提供大型賽會申辦當局作為未來評估賽會效益的建議與參考。

關鍵字

大型賽會 ； 亞洲運動會 ； 總體經濟效果 ； 追蹤資料

並列摘要

Introduction: Hosting major sport events had become a globalized strategy for many countries. Prior studies were supportive that major sport events could bring the host countries with substantial and considerable economic and non-economic benefits, so that many cities invested tremendous resources to bid for hosting major sport events. Despite the increasing influence of major sport events, could hosting Asian Games be regarded as a representative and positive signal of macroeconomic development for the hosting countries in Asian? Such an issue remained to be clarified by further long-term studies. Methods: Following the focus of previous literature on the economic effects of hosting major sport events, this study conducted a longitudinal analysis in which the secondary macroeconomic data were collected from the countries that had hosted Asian Games from 1951 to 2014 by employing dynamic panel data analysis. Results: The empirical evidence provided no statistically significant long-term macroeconomic effects on the growth measures of real Gross Domestic Product, real investment and international trade, except for short-term (i.e. Games phase) employment growth for the host countries of Asian Games. Conclusion: Most of the long-term positive macroeconomic effects could not be realized as the general anticipation of the host countries. It implied that hosting major sport events like Asian Games to facilitate national economic development might be a myth, even for the developing countries. The findings would be expected to provide the bidding authorities with hosting suggestions and references when they would like to assess the event benefits of hosting major sporting events in the future.

並列關鍵字

major sport events ； Asian Games ； macroeconomic effects ； panel data

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