The Impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome in Taiwan'¦s Tourism Industry: Cases of Inbound and Outbound Tourism

嚴重急性呼吸道症候群對台灣觀光業之衝擊：以來華及國人出國觀光為例

閔辰華(Jennifer C. H. Min)

《觀光研究學報》 10卷3期 (2004/09) Pp. 67-87

https://doi.org/10.6267/JTLS.2004.10(3)5

摘要

嚴重急性呼吸道症候群(SARS)的爆發造成台灣近年來最大的災害，其中尤以觀光業所受之衝擊最為嚴重。本研究之研究目的，欲評估此疾病對台灣觀光業所造成之衝擊、本研究以時間數列建立來華和國人出國觀光的二個Box-Jenkins SARIMA預測模型，並分別預測在SARS爆發時之來華和出國旅道人數（民國九十二年三月至七月），預測值再與實際值進行比較以分析其所受之影響、研究結果顯示，在SARS爆發的這五個月期間，台灣觀光業遭受到嚴重之衝擊、根據研究結果，對於觀光業及後續研究亦提出相關之建議。

關鍵字

爆發 ； 觀光業 ； 預測 ； 時間數列

並列摘要

The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak caused the most catastrophic disaster in Taiwan's recent past, and the greatest effects were felt instantly in the tourism industry. The purpose of this study is to assess the impact of the epidemic in Taiwan'¦s tourism industry. This research establishes two models for Taiwan's inbound and outbound tourism demand to predict the volume of tourist arrivals and departures, respectively, during and following the outbreak (March-July 2003). The forecasts are based on the time series of Box-Jenkins SARIMA models, which are then compared with the actual volume of visitor arrivals and tourist departures to analyze the impact. The empirical results indicate that during these 5 affected months, Taiwan'¦s tourism industry was devastated brutally by this disease. Based on the results, implications and recommendations are provided to the tourism authorities, and future research possibilities are also devoted.

並列關鍵字

outbreak ； tourism industry ； forecast ； time series

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