A Preliminary Test of a Human-caused Fire Danger Prediction Model

人爲性林火危險模式之建構與初步測試

林朝欽(Chau-Chin Lin)

《台灣林業科學》 17卷4期 (2002/12) Pp. 525-529

https://doi.org/10.7075/TJFS.200212.0525

摘要

本研究依林火危險研究中的生物、自然物理因子結合人類行爲建構一整合性林火危險預測模式。模式中包含生物性火險、人爲性火險兩部份作爲預測人爲性引起之林火發生機率，使用之變數爲引燃機率、用火行爲意向。台灣中部及南部的兩個國家公園選定作爲模式之初步測試地點，初步測試結果顯示觀念模式之架構及所包含之變數可被接受，但因研究時間之限制，此觀念模式仍須加以後續之評估測試以作爲改良模式之參考。

關鍵字

生物性火險 ； 人爲性火險 ； 引燃機率 ； 用火行爲意向

並列摘要

In this paper, an integrated model that combines bio-physical components related to fire hazards and human behavioral components related to fire risks is proposed. The model is shown to be as an improvement over the theoretical fire danger model. It predicts occurrence/potential based on ignition probability and fire use intentions of forest hikers. Testing of the model was conducted in SheiPa and Yushan National Parks located in central and southern Taiwan. The candidate variables provide acceptable results that support the structure of this conceptual model. Due to limited research time in this study, further tests of the conceptual model are needed to evaluate and improve the performance of the model.

並列關鍵字

Fire hazard ； fire risk ； ignition probability ； fire use intention