民眾使用自行車非致死肇事風險估計模式之建立與影響因子之研究

Developing a Risk Model to Explore Factors Affecting the Occurrence of Bicycle-related Non-fatal Accidents in Taiwan

葉純志(Chun-Chih Yeh)

《運輸學刊》 20卷1期 (2008/03) Pp. 71-90

https://doi.org/10.6383/JCIT.200803.0071

摘要

本研究旨在建構使用自行車之非致死肇事風險模式，並探討影響非致死肇事發生之相關因子。以衛生署國民健康局透過電話調查取得的民眾使用自行車之肇事資料，應用負二項式迴歸模式建立自行車使用者發生非致死肇事事件頻次與相關影響因子之關係模式，以分析相關影響因子。模式校估結果顯示年輕族群、國小以下以及使用時間較長者是最容易涉入自行車非致死肇事事件。在大量汽、機車混合之交通環境中使用自行車者亦具有較高之涉入肇事機會。其他包括性別、主要使用目的、是否居住在都市區域、戴安全帽之頻次、檢查車輛頻次以及有無裝設安全裝備等因子與涉入非致死肇事風險之間並無顯著相關。最後，並提出自行車肇事防制對策，以供各界參考。

關鍵字

自行車安全 ； 肇事風險 ； 負二項式迴歸模式

並列摘要

The study was undertaken to formulate a bicycle-related non-fatal accident risk model and explore the factors affecting the occurrence of bicycle-related accidents in Taiwan. The bicycle-related non-fatal accident data were collected by a telephone survey conducted by the Bureau of Health Promotion in 2004. Negative Binomial regression techniques were employed to build and estimate the model relating the non-fatal accident frequency to the relevant factors. The results indicated that those cyclists who are younger, with lower education level, and ridding longer travel time, experienced higher non-fatal accident risk. In addition, the heavier mix of vehicles and motorcycles in the traffic environment, the higher accident risk for the cyclists. The other variables, such as their gender, main purpose of riding a bike, the residency, frequency of wearing the bicycle helmet, frequency of bicycle-checking before riding, and whether or not the bicycle armed with any safety equipment were found to have no significant effects on the accident occurrence. Finally, bicycle accident prevention policy recommendations are made.

並列關鍵字

Bicycle safety ； Accident risk ； Negative Binomial regression model

參考文獻

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