高速公路服務區經營之灰預測動態競合分析－以國道三號中部服務區為例

高速公路服務區的研究通常採用問卷調查探討滿意度與重視項目，對於服務區之間的競合分析較無著墨。本研究的目的在於探討高速公路服務區彼此之間的競合關係，以期能構建服務區年度營業額之預測分析程序。構建的模式以Lotka-Volterra 模式與灰預測模式為基礎，代入西湖服務區、清水服務區及南投服務區之歷史管業額資料，進行預測並分析三服務區間之競合關係。結果顯示西湖及南投服務區的口碑不佳，西湖及清水服務區的設施及容量不足，僅有南投服務區的設施及容量足夠滿足旅客的需求。西湖及清水服務區會搶食南投服務區的客源，而西湖及清水服務區呈現彼此競爭。模式預測之MAPE均小於10%為高準確預測，顯示所構建之模式可成功預測服務區營業額及其競合關係。

關鍵字

服務區；營業額；動態競爭； Lotka-Volterra模式；競合分析

並列摘要

According to related studies, studies of highway service area focus on service satisfaction by questionnaire survey. The cooperation and competition of highway service area are rarely analyzed. The purposes of this study are figuring out the cooperation and competition relationship among the three central service area turnover of Freeway No.3 and forecast their turnover by the proposed dynamic competitive model. The proposed model is based on the Lotka-Volterra model. The three studied service areas are Xihu Service Area, Qingshui Service Area and Nantou Service Area. By the model, we can analyze the competition and cooperation relationship among the three service areas. Time series data of turnover from 2008 to 2013 are substituted into the model to calibrate the coefficients. Also, the data of2014 are used to validate the model. The results are summarized as follows. Xihu Service Area and Nantou Service Area have bad reputation. For Xihu Service Area and Qingshui Service Area, the infrastructure and capacity are insufficient. Only Nantou Service Area can meet the needs of travelers in infrastructure and capacity. Xihu Service Area and Qingshui Service Area will draw tourists away from Nantou Service Area. Xihu Service Area and Qingshui Service Area compete with each other. The model coupled with the external effects is unreasonable according to the results. The MAPE of our model is less than 10%, which is high accurate prediction. Therefore, the model presented in this model can forecast turnover of service area well and the cooperation and competition relationship successfully.