政策導向之前瞻方法建構－以個人化醫療為例

Development of a Policy-oriented Foresight Method-the Case of Personalized Medicine

蔡璞(Pwu Tsai) ； 殷正華(Cheng-Hua Ien) ； 林海珍(Hai-Chen Lin)

《科技管理學刊》 16卷3期 (2011/09) Pp. 53-76

https://doi.org/10.6378/JTM.201109.0053

摘要

科技的創新是由技術與社會共同演化而成，因此本文由未來社會、經濟需求出發，建構出一種政策導向之前瞻方法。科技前瞻經過時間演變及方法學的不斷精進改良，已由決策支援工具逐漸轉化成為一種政策工具。技術地圖因其技術規劃的特性而能聯結現實與未來，遂廣為各國應用而成為落實科技前瞻規劃的有效利器。然由於技術地圖方法開發之初係為產業研發管理需求所設計，必須整合其他前瞻方法後才較適合作為政策長期規劃之用。因此本文在此概念下，比較分析數種國際前瞻曾採用之整合型技術地圖之優劣點，汲取各方法之精髓後開發設計出一種由前瞻情境出發且可整合部門分工之技術地圖操作模式，並以個人化醫療作為範例驗證其可操作性，期能在演練過程中，對於方法模組與流程之設計能有更深入之啟發，並對未來政策應用能有所助益。

關鍵字

前瞻 ； 技術地圖 ； 方法學 ； 政策規劃 ； 個人化醫療

並列摘要

The development of technologies evolves along with social and technology co-evolution. This paper is to construct a policy-oriented foresight method based on the future needs of society and economy. Due to the continuous improvements in its methods, government foresight program has evolved from decision support mechanism to be a policy instrument. To further implement technology foresight, technology roadmap is now widely adopted as a tool to 'plan' and link the future. For long-term policy planning, however, it is necessary to integrate technology roadmapping with other foresight methods to go beyond its use as R&D management tool. This paper therefore compares and contrasts several integral technology roadmapping methods used in technology foresight programs in order to propose a foresight-informed technology roadmapping. The roadmapping of personalized medicine is presented as an example to verify the practicability of proposed procedure that may benefit future policy-making.

並列關鍵字

Foresight ； Technology roadmap ； Methodology ； Policy planning ； Personalized medicine

參考文獻

余序江、許志義、陳澤義(1998)。科技管理導論：科技預測規劃。台北:五南圖書出版公司。

蔡璞(2010)。技術地圖實務精要。台北:鼎茂圖書出版公司。

Ahlqvist, T.,Carlsen, H.,Iversen, J.,Kristiansen, E.(2007).Nordic Foresight, Future of the ICT environment and applications on the Nordic level.,未出版.

Andersen, P. D.,Greve, O.,Nielsen, S. K.(2004).Nordic H2 Foresight, Roadmap for H2 in the Nordic Countries.,未出版.

Beeton, D. A.,Phaal, R.,Probert, D. R.(2008).Exploratory Roadmapping for foresight.Int. J. Technology Intelligence and Planning.4(4),398-412.