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Comparison of Various Different Approaches to Tourist Demand Forecasting

並列摘要


On September 21, 1999, Taiwan was struck by the devastating Chi-Chi earthquake, which damaged Yushan National Park. This study focuses on tourism demand (i.e. the number of arrivals) after the September 21 earthquake in Taiwan. This study uses the Grey model and regression to forecast tourism demand for Yushan National Park. Monthly tourism demand found to change as the result of seasonal differences. According to the analysis presented in this study, Seasonal Grey forecasting seems to be the best method for forecasting tourism demand. This study investigates three forecasting methods that show a rising trend for tourism demand in Yushan national park , subsequently Yushan national park headquarters can perform better tourism strategic planning.

被引用紀錄


Lin, C. M. (2012). 灰色傅立葉行為評等模式之建構 [master's thesis, Tamkang University]. Airiti Library. https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2012.00667
Chen, Y. Y. (2014). 少數據資料下灰色區間時間數列預測之研究 [doctoral dissertation, I-SHOU University]. Airiti Library. https://doi.org/10.6343/ISU.2014.00292
劉慧君(2009)。臺灣地區未來牙醫師人力供需研究─灰色預測模式之應用〔碩士論文,朝陽科技大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=U0078-0801201511154574
陳其域(2010)。塑膠機械產品需求預測模式之研究-以俄羅斯市場為例〔碩士論文,朝陽科技大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=U0078-2611201410130563
呂茂亨(2010)。GM(1,1)應用於用電趨勢之研究-以某科技大學為例〔碩士論文,朝陽科技大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=U0078-0601201112112552

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