2002年大陸情勢特點及其未來發展動向

The Features of the Present Situation in Mainland China in 2002 and the Trend of Its Future Development

兩岸交流遠景基金會大陸問題研究小組(Mainland Affairs Research Division Cross-strait Interflow Prospect Foundation)

《遠景基金會季刊》 4卷1期 (2003/01) Pp. 125-145

https://doi.org/10.7063/PQ.200301.0125

摘要

綜觀2002年大陸情勢發展的特點，政治上以召開「十六大」進行黨務系統的人事換屆改組最受矚目，胡錦濤、溫家寶、曾慶紅等第四代領導幹部完成接班；經濟上在全球普遍不景氣情況下，仍可望呈現7.97%高速成長、社會上雖因「十六大」的召開而採取較嚴密的部署，但仍發生各類群體性抗爭、法輪功蓋臺等重大事件；外交上藉由反恐合作，積極推動高層外交及爭取主辦國際性會議，有效塑造其大國形象及提升其國際地位；在兩岸關係上，除重新詮釋「一個中國」內涵、調整對臺「聽言觀行」策略外，置重點於強化對臺經濟統戰、加大「促通」力度及加強海外推動「反獨促統」活動。
展望未來一年，中共在政治上將以召開「十屆全國人大一次會議」進行國家機構人事改組為重點，並全力鞏固新的領導集體，以維護政局穩定為核心工作；在經濟上將力求保持經濟高速成長優勢，以提升新領導集體的績效與聲望；在社會安全上，將突出「維穩」訴求，防止出現騷亂，確保社會穩定；在對外關係上，將會持續開展大國外交，推動國際格局朝多極化發展。至於在對臺政策上仍將呈現「江規胡隨」的局面，以「和平統一、一國兩制」和「江八點」為基礎，繼續推動各項統戰工作，並將促成兩岸百接「三通」列為最優先目標。

關鍵字

十六大 ； 法輪功 ； 反恐怖主義 ； 一個中國

並列摘要

To present a relatively clearer picture of the PRC (People's Republic of China), this article reviews the overall political, economic, social, military and diplomatic situations of the Chinese mainland over the past year (2002), plus Beijing's attitudes toward Taiwan, and also ventures an account of likelihoods in these regards in the year ahead.
The most notable PRC political event of 2002 was the Communist Party's 16th Congress in November when succession by Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao, Zeng Qinghong, etc. of the fourth generation took place. Economically, the PRC continued its high growth-possibly by 7.9% in the final analysis-despite the global sluggishness. Socially the regime tightened its grips in preparation for the party congress, but major mass protests of various types, including overriding of TV signals by Falun Gong followers, were recorded. Diplomatically the drive was for a big-power image and a higher status by expanding external ties in the name of anti-terror cooperation and by actively promoting high-level diplomacy and hosting international meetings. As regards cross-Taiwan Strait relations, Beijing re-expounded its ”one China” stand, adjusted its ”listen and observe” tactics vis-a-vis Taipei, and started laying additional stress on matters of economic united front, calls for full-scale ”three links,” and pressures through overseas sources to make Taiwan ”abandon independence and opt for unification.”
But as the actual changes of shifts - party, government and military-will have to wait till the 10th National People's Congress holds its First Session in March 2003, the PRC power workings are still in the midst of transition from ”the outgoing to the incoming.” Besides, the new collective leadership formed with Hu Jintao at its head by the 16th Central Committee in November needs some time of ”grinding” to fit in, and Jiang Jemin and other third-generation top men are likely to keep exerting more or less influence for a while. Therefore, the internal and external PRC policies can be expected to remain relatively stable in the period immediately ahead.
The PRC political gravity in 2003 will be around rearrangements of state machines personnel beginning at the 10th NPC First Session, with emphasis on consolidation of the new collective leadership and on continuation of stability. Endeavor for sustained high economic growth will be made by the new leaders in their quest of power and prestige. Calls for stability will remain loud and clear in the hope that Beijing will be politically secure and free from social unrests. As for external relations, big-power diplomacy will go on for further multi-polar development of the international structure. The regime, in its cross-strait dealings, will policy-wise continue in the framework of ”Jiang (Zemin) setting the rule for Hu (Jintao) to follow,” and on the basis that combines ”peaceful unification” under the ”one country, two systems” formula with Jiang's ”eight-point proposal.” This, in practice, means foremost emphasis on more united front activities to bring about direct ”three links” between the two sides.

並列關鍵字

Sixteenth Party Congress ； Falun Gong ； Anti-Terrorism ； One China