2003年大陸情勢特點及其未來發展動向

The Features of the Present Situation in Mainland China in 2003 and the Trend of its Future Development

兩岸交流遠景基金會大陸問題研究小組(Mainland Affairs Research Division Cross-Strait Interflow Prospect Foundation)

《遠景基金會季刊》 5卷1期 (2004/01) Pp. 157-178

https://doi.org/10.7063/PQ.200401.0157

摘要

綜觀2003年大陸情勢發展，總體上仍保持相當平穩的局面，主要表現在政治上順利完成國家機關權力交班，中共新領導人危機處理能力較預期為強；經濟上雖受SARS衝擊，但仍維持8.5%以上的高成長率；社會上雖潛藏各種矛盾，但仍能有效控制而未出現重大危機；外交上積極展現其國際影響力，與美國關係取得重大進展；科技上成功發射「神舟五號」載人太空船，打破美、俄獨霸太空的格局。
展望2004年，中共為奠定全面建設小康社會的有利基礎，在政治上將會全力鞏固新的領導集體，維護政局穩定；在經濟上，將會持續擴大對外開放和招商引資，化解人民幣升值壓力，保持經濟高速成長的優勢；在軍事上，將會落實裁軍及持續推動「科技強軍」政策，並持續對臺進行軍事準備；在社會安全上，將會持續加強掌控，防止社會出現騷亂；在對外關係上，將會繼續開展大國外交，推動區域經濟整合計畫，強化其區域強國地位；至於在對臺工作上，將在「和平統一、一國兩制」的基礎上，繼續推動各項和平統戰工作，並將重點擺在嚇阻「統獨」公投及促成直接「三通」，防止臺灣「走獨」及強化經濟「磁吸」作用。

關鍵字

權力繼承 ； 裁軍與軍事現代化 ； 區域強權 ； 和平統一

並列摘要

As a comprehensive review about China's developing situation in 2003, which has remained overall stable even with the crisis of SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) attack. In political aspect, China has accomplished the succession of political power transition, showing that capability in managing crisis is better than expected. In economic aspect, China has still maintained dramatic growth rate by 8.5% above, even since SARS impact. In social aspect, though there are various hidden conflicts in the existence, China has controlled well without any enormous social crisis. In diplomatic aspect, China has actively shown the international influence and engaged with the United States dramatically. Lastly, in technology aspect, China has launched ”Shenzhou IV”, a landmark manned space mission, with great triumph, and meanwhile cheered the public since the space used to be dominated by US and Russia.
Looking forward to the coming year, Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will consolidate their new leading power with all efforts as the beneficial basis to establish a ”well-off society” (小康社會). Economically, China aims to open its market and promote trade and FDI. Meanwhile, China has to reconcile the pressure for a revaluation of its currency, renminbi, and keep the advantage of its tremendous economic growth. Militarily, China will implement military force downsizing and modernization policies for technological improvement. Also continually, China will process the military preparation regarding to Taiwan issues. As social security problems, China will reinforce the social control from chaos. As external relations, China will give impetus to the integrating plans on regional economy and, further, strengthen its regional dominant power status. As China's Taiwan policy, the framework of ”peaceful unification; one country, two systems” will be proposed fundamentally and China will push various ways to advance its unification course. Accordingly, preventing from Taiwan's referendum issue relating with ”unification or independence” and pursuing ”three links” with Taiwan to strengthen the economic magnetic effect are the primary measures of Chinese government.

並列關鍵字

Power Succession ； Military Downsizing and Modernization ； Regional Dominate Power ； Peaceful Unification