東亞貨幣同盟的前景與人民幣的角色

隨著東亞經濟力量的增強、歐元區的成立，東亞地區形成貨幣同盟的可能性一直是各界關注的焦點。在探討東亞貨幣同盟的文章中，大多強調日圓是最適合作為東亞各國貨幣緊盯的對象。與歐盟15國形成的歐盟相比東亞各國在開放性、區域內貿易往來、中央銀行貼現率，以及物價膨脹率等方面，仍有大幅改善的空間。在貨幣政策一致性及拉近各國經濟發展程度方面，也需要東亞各國政府的努力。此外，東亞各國除了政治體制有所不同，也存在著社會主義和資本主義的衝突，再加上各國在語言、種族、信仰等方面的不一致，均是在形成貨幣同盟過程中所必須克服的問題。與此同時，隨著中國大陸經濟力量的提升，人民幣對全世界及東亞貨幣同盟的形成將會是一股不可忽視的力量，並與日圓形成競爭的關係，而這一切也都將決定於人民幣何時實現自由兌換性。

關鍵字

歐元區；貨幣同盟；人民幣；自由兌換性；貨幣政策

並列摘要

Following the experiences of the European Union's euro-zone, a common currency area for Asia is being widely discussed. The main purpose of this paper aims to analyze the possibility of emergence of Asian monetary union, and what the role of Renminbi will be. Economic integration is expected to grow further through the proposed free trade area of China and the ten member countries of ASEAN. A few papers argue that yen will be the anchor of the East-Asian countries. However, while there is more convergence in economic and political conditions in Europe, there are widely uneven economic development patterns both within and between East Asia countries. Furthermore, it is not clear that East Asia is so well suited to be a common currency area. Although there are lots of obstacles to form Asian monetary union, China already enjoys important and rapidly growing trade and investment relations with its Asian neighbors. However, the goal of Renminbi becoming full convertibility is probably still quite far in the future. As long as to solve this problem, Renminbi is rather likely to be a dominant role for the process of Asian monetary integration.