十八大後習近平掌軍執政的前景

Xi Jinping's Political Leadership and Command of Gun as Commander-in-Chief after the 18th CCP National Congress

由冀(Ji You)

《遠景基金會季刊》 14卷4期 (2013/10) Pp. 37-75

摘要

十八屆中央軍事委員會是一個人事大體均衡的最高統帥部，為今後五年的領軍奠定了穩固的基礎。在這個班子裡，習近平擁有明顯的人事優勢。輔之中央軍事委員會主席的首長負責制，為他統領三軍提供了充實的條件。可以確定，習近平將成為中共後鄧時期最有權力的領袖。在中國政治、軍事、經濟發展的關鍵時刻，一個不同的領袖，一種不同的統領風格，或許會對中共未來10年的執政帶來不同的氣象。但習是新班子的福音，還是挑戰，將是外界的戰略關注點。

關鍵字

習近平 ； 解放軍菁英政治 ； 十八屆中央軍事委員會 ； 政軍關係 ； 政治繼承

並列摘要

Generally speaking, the 18th CMC is a body of excellent commanders. It reflects the continuation of the meritocratic trend of the PLA, as seen from their education qualifications, combat experience, strategic vision, diversified command record and reduced average age. The most strategic feature of its formation is that a new equilibrium has been reached. As the next commander-in-chief, Xi Jinping can rely on CMC members' professionalism to command the gun. More importantly, he is able to count on PLA support to consolidate his power, which will help him in launching political initiatives and controversial policies. With an enhanced power base in the Party and the military, he will differ from his predecessors in controlling the gun, from the previous ”reign without overt rule” to a more hands-on approach. Adjusting civilian-military relations in the context of a China undergoing drastic change becomes necessary and is part of his political leadership for realizing his political ambition.

並列關鍵字

Xi Jingping ； PLA Elite Politics ； the CCP 18th Congress ； Civil-military Relations ； Political Succession

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