中國崛起與南海衝突：臺灣在亞太秩序中之戰略影響

本文主要的研究問題是崛起大國如何追求權力？大國之間的衝突和互動如何影響小國的外交行為？國際和國內的結構性因素如何促成和限制國家的立場和選擇？本文的研究發現是中國崛起之後，其在南海衝突的行為，使其成為挑戰亞太秩序的修正主義國家，以及中國強制性外交的作為讓周邊國家選擇與美國深化正式聯盟或非正式聯盟的關係來抗衡中國。臺灣選擇對中國進行軟抗衡的策略，以及深化扈從美國的政策，更能夠維護臺灣的戰略安全和相對利益。

關鍵字

崛起大國；南海衝突；修正主義國家；軟抗衡政策；相對利得

並列摘要

The questions of this paper are how a rising power shows its prowess, how the interactions and conflicts of great powers affect diplomatic behaviors of small powers, how the international and domestic factors impact on the stance of the state, and how small states strike a balance between great powers. The findings are below. China is a revisionist power that uses coercive diplomacy to solve maritime sovereignty disputes with neighboring countries such as Vietnam and the Philippines in the South China Sea conflicts. These two countries have been hedging against China by strengthening their strategic ties with the U.S.. For Taiwan, political pressures from rapprochement or unification with China have propelled Taiwan to choose the strategy of soft-balancing and the conflicts between the U.S. and China in the South China Sea have transformed Taiwan's grand strategy by more bandwagoning with America. This strategy is more likely to consolidate Taiwan's strategic security and relative gains in the triangular relations between the U.S., China and Taiwan.