北韓核武危機：川普強制外交策略之分析

North Korea's Nuclear Crisis: The Strategy and Analysis of Trump's Coercive Diplomacy

胡敏遠(Ming-yuan Hu)

《遠景基金會季刊》 20卷3期 (2019/07) Pp. 101-150

摘要

朝鮮半島「無核化」是美國亞太戰略的重要目標。長久以來，美國運用政治、外交、軍事、經濟等各種強制性手段，威逼北韓就範。美國的強制作為涉及的是：考量北韓接受協議的可信度與平壤採取報復的後果，美國是否有對北韓動用武力的決心。當前美、朝博弈的發展趨勢，美國恐難以單極模式達成「無核化」的目標。美國除須增強本身的軍事嚇阻能力，還須與區域國家及大國合作，共同解決核武問題。美國若不改變目前策略，北韓的核武威脅仍將是美國揮之不去的陰霾。

關鍵字

北韓核武 ； 川普 ； 強制外交 ； 無核化 ； 川金會

並列摘要

The denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is an important goal for U.S. Asia-Pacific strategy. For a long time, the United States has used political, diplomatic, military, and economic compulsory means to intimidate North Korea. The U.S.' coercion is related to whether the United States has the determination to use force against North Korea; consider the credibility of North Korea's acceptance of the agreement and the consequences of Pyongyang's retaliation. Taking into account the current trend of relations between the United States and Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), the United States may not be able to achieve a unipolar model for denuclearization. In addition to strengthening its own military deterrence capability, the United States must also work with regional and major powers to solve the issue of denuclearization. If the United States does not change its current strategy, North Korea's nuclear threat will remain.

並列關鍵字

North Korea Nuclear ； Donald Trump ； Coercive Diplomacy ； Denuclearization ； Trump-Kim Summit

參考文獻

Snyder, Scott, 2009. China’s Rise and the Two Koreas: Politics, Economics, Security. Boulder: Lynne Rienner.

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George, Alexander L., 1994. “Coercive Diplomacy: Definition and Characteristics,” in Alexander L. George & William E. Simons, eds., The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy-2nd Edition. Boulder: Westview Press. pp. 7-11.

Abrams Elliott, 2019/1-2. “Trump Versus the Government: Can America Get Its Story Straight?” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 98, No. 1, pp. 129-138.

Cha, Victor & Katrin Fraser Katz, 2018/5-6. “The Right Way to Coerce North Korea: Ending the Threat Without Going to War,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 97, No. 3, pp. 87-100.