大眾運輸導向建成環境特性對捷運運量影響之研究－以臺北捷運為實證對象

The Influence of TOD Build Environment Attributes on Metro Ridership: A Case Study of Taipei City

白仁德(Jen-Te Pai) ； 劉人華(Jen-Hua Liu)

《建築與規劃學報》 15卷2&3期 (2014/12) Pp. 111-127

摘要

伴隨著國際間永續發展思潮興起，「大眾運輸導向發展（Transit-oriented development, TOD）」逐漸成為各主要城市應用之都市發展型態，以期待透過交通運輸與土地使用之整合，強化運輸系統使用效能與土地使用機能，其中又以提升大眾運輸工具運量為首要目標（Cervero, 2004）。然因應不同之國情與社經背景，TOD之應用與效益在各國仍有許多討論，國內外雖已有相關研究就TOD建成環境特性對捷運運量之影響效益進行驗證，然仍多局限於以橫斷面資料進行分析，並缺乏以TOD-5D建成環境特性（密度、混合土地使用、都市設計、旅次迄點可及性、到達運輸場站距離）進行驗證。基此，本研究以臺北市捷運系統為研究對象，並界定5D建成環境變數後，選定兩時間斷點（2001年與2011年），利用多元線性迴歸分析法建立「前期模式」與「後期模式」，並分別對僅包含控制變數之「基礎模式」與納入建成環境變數之「擴充模式」進行校估，以驗證TOD建成環境特性對捷運運量之影響關係。實證結果發現，顯著影響捷運運量之變數雖會因為期間之不同而有所差異，然密度（Density）面向變數仍為主要之影響因素，其中捷運營運後期土地混合使用（Diversity）面向變數有越顯重要之趨勢；此外由模式差異檢定可知，無論是前期模式或後期模式，基本模式與擴充模式間皆具有顯著差異。研究結果可作為台北捷運後續TOD發展之建議。

關鍵字

大眾運輸導向發展 ； 捷運運量 ； 建成環境 ； 多元線性迴歸分析

並列摘要

Transit-Oriented Development (TOD), a sustainable urban form, aims to integrate transportation and land use in anticipation of improving transport efficiency and land use function. The enhancement of Metro ridership is considered the primary target in TOD (Cervero, 2004), which has gradually become the main focus during the urban planning process. However, benefits and implementation of TOD are still under extensive discussion owing to the deviation between social and economic contexts in different countries. While studies of the influence of the built environment on TOD on Metro ridership have been conducted previously, cross-sectional data were used and the 5D characteristics of the built environment, i.e. density, diversity, design, destination accessibility and distance to transit, have not yet been verified or utilized. This study focuses on confirming the influence of the 5D characteristics of built environment on Metro ridership in Taipei, Taiwan for two study years (2001 and 2011). Multiple linear regression analysis was used to establish the models of influence, including an earlier and later stage model. Both the target models were calibrated using a base model (with the consideration of control variables only) and an expanded model (with the consideration of both control variables and the built environment variables). The results indicated that although the impact of significant variables on Metro ridership differed between the time periods, the ＂Density＂ variable remained the primarily influencing factor, and the ＂Diversity＂ variable became influential at a later stage. Furthermore, there were significant differences between the base model and the expanded model for both the target models, which indicated that inclusion of the built environment factors significantly influenced the explanatory power of the model. The results from this study can be used as an approach for Transit-Oriented Development in Taipei City.

並列關鍵字

Transit-Oriented Development ； Metro ridership ； built environment ； multiple linear regression analysis method

參考文獻

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林楨家、李家儂、馮正民、羅健文、蔡耀慶、陳志豪、李欣庭、黃運貴、黃新薰、朱珮芸()。,未出版。