可轉換公司債之財務預測誤差決定因素探討

我國特有的強制性財務預測規範(regulation)實施後，規定公司在發行可轉換公司債時必須進行強制性財務預測之公告，其中可轉換公司債發行條款的設計部分是否與財務預測的樂觀或悲觀情況有關為本文研究之重點。公司在設計發行條款時，發行條款的優惠程度與財務預測的樂觀程度之間，是否存在替代的關係，因而共同形成發行可轉換公司債的一組替代性促銷策略亦為探討之標的。實證結果發現，(1)可轉換公司債發行總額愈大、發行期間愈長，管理當局較不需調高預測盈餘進行促銷，故配套的預測盈餘亦不需太過樂觀。(2)發行時溢價愈高，為讓投資者看好公司未來前景，故調高預測盈餘誘因亦愈大。(3)轉換期間愈長，其原因可能為公司營運狀況與未來前景不佳所致，故調高預測盈餘誘因亦愈大。(4)負債比率愈高，可能為公司信譽佳，籌措資金較易，故管理當局較不需調高預測盈餘進行促銷。

關鍵字

可轉換公司債；強制性財務預測；發行條款；盈餘預測誤差

並列摘要

The regulation of mandatory financial forecast, enforced from 1991, required the issuer of convertible bonds should disclose forecast earnings. Hence, this paper examines the association between the issue terms of convertible bonds and the earnings forecast errors. According to the theory of informational asymmetry and related literatures, to examine the following hypotheses is mainly study in this paper when the issue terms are favorable (or unfavorable) for investors given lower (or higher) earnings forecast errors. The empirical data were obtained from the database of Taiwan Economic Journal (TEJ) and the prospectus of convertible bonds issuers from 1991 to 1999 for the listed securities in the Taiwan stock market. From the results of empirical test, the issue terms are highly correlated with the earnings forecast errors. The main findings are as follows: (1)There is a negative association between the earnings forecast errors and issuance amount. (2)There is a negative association between the earnings forecast errors and issuance period. (3)There is a positive association between the earnings forecast errors and issuing premium. (4)There is a positive association between the earnings forecast errors and the length of the convertible period. (5)There is a negative association between the earnings forecast errors and debt ratios.