管理當局傳遞訊息管道之選擇：庫藏股宣告與財務預測更新

The Management Choices Signaling Channels between Stocks Repurchase Announcement and Financial Forecast Update

林輝棖(Huei-Chang Lin)

指導教授 ： 林維珩

中原大學/商學院/會計研究所/碩士(2004年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu200400507

摘要

本論文主要目的在利用市場資訊，探討公司如何在宣告買回庫藏股與財務預測兩資訊之間如何做選擇。本研究庫藏股以民國90、91年間公告買回庫藏股，財務預測與更新以民國86年至91年宣告財務預測更新為樣本，首先以事件研究法檢定此兩資訊是否為公司管理當局向投資大眾傳達訊息的管道，以及此兩訊息是否可以作為未來盈餘的信號，接著比較兩訊息間市場是否有差異性，在考慮財務預測更新的方向性下，庫藏股與財務預測更新的市場反應，是互補還是互斥。

研究結果發現：(1)財務預測不論是正向或是負向更新皆具有資訊內涵，而庫藏股經由實證也發現相同結果，即庫藏股與財務預測更新皆為管理當局向投資大眾傳達訊息的管道；(2) 庫藏股與未預期盈餘之間並沒有顯著的關連性，即庫藏股並不能視為未來盈餘的信號，而財務預測更新部分，財務預測負向更新可做為未來盈餘的信號；(3)經由Wilcoxon 符號等級檢定、符號檢定或是配對樣本T檢定後發現，庫藏股與財務預測正向更新並無顯著差異；(4) 同時宣告買回庫藏股與財務預測更新，市場上並無太大反應，亦兩宣告間沒有顯著的關連性。

關鍵字

庫藏股 ； 財務預測更新

並列摘要

The main purpose of the research is to use market information to investigate how the company makes choice between stocks repurchase announcement and financial forecast update. The samples of the research are the stocks repurchase announcement between 2001 and 2002 and the financial forecast update between 1997 and 2002. First, apply event study to test if the two kinds of information are signaling channels for management authority. Second, study the information to make sure if it could be the signal of the future earnings. Third, compare the information differences in the market. Forth, under the considerations of financial forecast update adjustment, the market reaction about stocks repurchase announcement and financial forecast update is complementary or not.

The results of the research are:(1) No matter the financial forecast is positive or negative, it is informative. So are treasury stocks. That is , they are both signaling channels. (2) There is no obvious connection between treasury stocks and unexpected earnings. Treasury stocks can’t be thought as the signals of future earnings. As to financial forecast update, negative update can be the signals. (3) By ways of Wilcoxon test, sign test or matching sample T test, there is no apparent diversity between stocks repurchase announcement and financial forecast positive update. (4) Proclaim stocks repurchase and financial forecast update simultaneously, there is no strong reaction in the market. That means no evident link exists between them.

並列關鍵字

Financial forecast update ； Treasury stock

參考文獻

林達榮、李家琪，2002，可轉換公司債之財務預測誤差決定因素探討，台灣管理學刊，第2卷第1期，pp.149-174。

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