拜登政府對中政策主軸與台海局勢分析

The main axis of The Biden Administration's China Policy and an Analysis of the Cross-Strait Situation

李其澤(Ci-Ze Li)

《全球政治評論》 特集007 (2022/03) Pp. 77-92

摘要

拜登政府中國政策的主要指導原則有以下幾點：一、中國是21世紀威脅美國領導地位的戰略競爭對手和現存國際秩序的最大挑戰者。二、最符合美國利益的對中政策選項是基於實力的「競爭戰略」。三、雖然未來美中關係的特質是「激烈競爭」，但非冷戰狀態。四、雙方要管理競爭，不要陷入衝突，造成戰爭；換言之，要在競爭中共存，避免「修昔底德陷阱」（Thucydides Trap）。本文將拜登政府對中政策的主軸界定為「競爭性共存」（competitive coexistence），並深入討論和闡釋美中關係「競爭性共存」的意涵與實務。最後，在美中關係「競爭性共存」的架構下，分析台海局勢的發展。

關鍵字

拜登政府 ； 中國政策 ； 美中關係 ； 台海局勢 ； 競爭戰略 ； 競爭性共存

並列摘要

The guiding principles of the Biden administration's China policy are as follows: 1. China is a strategic competitor threatening the leadership of the United States in the world and the biggest challenger to the existing international order in the 21st century. 2. The best option of China policy that in the U.S. Interests is a ＂competitive strategy＂ based on strength. 3. Although the main characteristics of future US-China relations is ＂extreme competition＂, it is not a Cold War. 4. Both sides should manage competition, and don't fall into conflict and cause war. In other words, the two powers must coexist in competition and avoid the ＂Thucydides Trap＂. This article defines the main axis of the Biden administration's China policy as ＂competitive coexistence＂, and deeply discusses and explains the implication and practice of ＂competitive coexistence＂ in US-China relations. Finally, it analyzes the development of the Cross-Strait Situation within the framework of ＂competitive coexistence＂ in US-China relations.

並列關鍵字

The Biden Administration ； China Policy ； U.S.-China Relations ； the Cross-Strait Situation ； Competitive Strategy ； Competitive Coexistence