闡述“維持現狀”對台灣前途之意涵－動態平衡的模糊過渡途徑

台灣在2004年之總統大選後，泛藍陣營提出了有關「319」槍擊事件之調查與驗票的要求，一度引發了有關台灣2004年總統大選過程正當性之爭議。不過，這些爭議可望在司法程序中，逐漸回歸理性與平靜面。儘管如此，陳總統堅持民主改革與建設台灣成為一個「正常完整」的國家之決心，將會面臨藍綠對峙及不同國家認同之挑戰。在錯綜複雜的美－中－台三角關係上，美國將繼續其「一個中國」政策，而陳總統若要在不違反「四不一沒有」之原則下進行台灣國家定位之改造工程，則有必要賦予「維持現狀」一些新的論述，並闡述兩岸關係之「動態均衡」之重要性。爰此，本文針對「維持現狀」之背景、意涵及策略作深入分析，以利學術界與政府部門在研究或制定兩岸關係、美－中－台三角關係政策時之參考價值。

關鍵字

兩岸關係；維持現狀；動態均衡；美－中－台三角關係

並列摘要

After the 2004 Presidential Election in Taiwan, the requisitions, proposed by Pan-Blue camp, for investigation on the gunshot incident on March 19th and the recount of ballots have once caused the disputes about the legitimacy of the process of the presidential election. However, such disputes, hopefully, would gradually calm down through the judicial procedure. Nevertheless, what President Chen determines, especially on democratic reformation and the endeavor of constructing Taiwan to be a ”normally complete” state, would encounter the challenges resulted from the ideological and political cleavage within Taiwan society. Besides, it is obvious that the United States would continue her ”One China Policy” on the intricate issue of US-China-Taiwan relations while President Chen needs to endow ”maintaining the status quo” with novel discourses as well as to elaborate the importance of ”dynamic equilibrium” between Taiwan and China, in order to propose the social and political engineering of Taiwan's national position without transgressing the principle of ”Four NOs plus one.” Therefore, this paper aims to analyze the context, meaning and strategies of ”maintaining the status quo” with the expectation of providing some insights for both academics and practitioners in the field of cross-strait relations and US-China-Taiwan Relations.