胡錦濤時期中共對臺輿論戰決策之研究

The Research into the Public Opinion Warfare that C.C.P. Operates to Taiwan during the Hu Jin-Tao Era

黃瑞柔(Jui-Jou Huang)

指導教授 ： 宋學文教授

國立中正大學/社會科學院/戰略暨國際事務研究所/碩士(2012年)

摘要

對於中國大陸而言，「臺灣問題」不僅是攸關其國家統一與貫徹民族主義的戰略議題，更是歷史檢視每任領導人能力的重要指標，然而「臺灣問題」因為本身所獨有的歷史背景而具有相當程度的複雜性，儼然成為中共每屆領導人主政後所亟欲解決，卻又僅能「遠觀而不可近褻玩焉」的究極目標。
　　筆者觀察中國現任領導人胡錦濤自上任後，為因應國際間所普遍存在的「中國威脅論」提出所謂「和平崛起」論調，致使直接使用武力解決「臺灣問題」的可能性微乎極微，唯有積極利用新聞媒體等宣傳機制對臺施行「輿論戰」，始得於不觸及國際內外環境的限制下，遂行其「中國統一」的意志與目標。
　　本篇論文重點在於探討中共對臺「輿論戰」決策之過程與特點，首先藉由綜觀中共歷代領導人對臺宣傳之作為脈絡詳細定義「輿論戰」，再根據傳播學中相關的學說理論說明一國領導人是如何透過新聞媒體的機制輸出其政治理念，並且進而影響受眾（閱聽人）的觀念與思想；最後運用David Easton的系統理論（System Theory）與國內政治巨擘宋學文博士所首創之（3+1）i決策模型梳理中共高層菁英集團將領導人理念（1i）落實於草案，再將草案下發各機構單位（2i）以至落實於政策輸出（3i）的過程。最後另行反向思考臺灣民眾在接受中共「輿論戰」作為刺激後，自身原本所特有之「臺灣主體意識」與實質利益在利益（2i）部分進行整合，最終反饋（4i）至理念層面，進而增強或削弱臺灣民眾對「中」認同的研究。
　　經筆者研究發現，中共現行決策模式雖然看似具備民主國家政策輸出時所須要之各項要素，然而卻因其自身特殊的共產主義與人事任命制度，致使政策產生於決策過程中的各個階段形同虛設，無論是理念（ideas）、利益（interests）、制度化（institutionalize）或反饋（feedback）等，均無法發揮其應有的制衡或限制功能。雖然在中共自有的共產體制下，上述決策模式的實行無所滯礙，然而這樣的決策過程在中共對臺施行「輿論戰」的過程中，卻反而因為納入了「臺灣」這個具備高度民主性質與自由思想的重要變項，而在中共高層極力爭取、迎合臺灣民眾所具有的「主體意識」與對「中」認同的前提下，補強了大陸政策輸出過程中所最欠缺的「民意」反饋部分，並且於各階段加強制衡與反饋的機制，進而完備了決策模型中所應具備的功能與機制。

關鍵字

決策模型 ； 決策 ； 輿論戰 ； 胡錦濤

並列摘要

As far as China’s concerned, “Taiwan Issue” has been not only a strategic topic critically indicates to its national unification and consciousness put into effect, but also an important basis when history judged the ability of each term of sovereigns in power. However, “Taiwan Issue” is provided with a certain scale of complexity due to its historical background and becomes the ultimate target that every Chinese head of state eagers to solve, but yet to complete.

　Observing China’s current President Hu Jin-Tao from his being in office, Hu brought up the theory of “Peaceful Rise” in response to the internationally widespread “China Threat Theory,” and under the subtle international circumstances, China was forbidden to solve the “Taiwan Issue” by using instant military forces, and the only way to procure the ambition of “unifying” Taiwan without violation Hu’s own declare of peace is to aggressively apply the media function and mechanism within “the warfare of public opinions” toward Taiwan.

　The research topic of this certain thesis is about China’s “warfare of public opinions” toward Taiwan. Beginning by making a comprehensive survey of Chinese successive Presidents’ prior deeds, the thesis defines the forms of China’s “warfare of public opinions” orderly and specifically. Then it clearly narrates the process of how a country leader inputs his own political ideas into receivers’ thought through all kinds of gateways according to the related theories. Eventually, the thesis chooses to apply the “System Theory” of David Easton and the（3+1）i decision-making model originally initiated by the internal political authority Dr. Hseik-Wen Soong to analyze the models of how the Chinese elite government policymakers carry out the ideas of their leader into drafts, and how the following policy- making bodies output the drafts into policies. At last, thinking backwards to research how Taiwan people react toward the stimulus from China’s propaganda, and the process of how the policy outcomes from the struggle between Taiwan people’s self-identity and economic interests ultimately enhances or restricts their identification to China.

　During the research, we can specify the issue that although the policy-making process of China possesses almost all the same essential factors of what it takes within the democratic countries, but its unique Communism and personnel system cause each part of the processes failed to achieve its restriction function, whether in the ideas, interests, institutionalize or the feedback section. Nevertheless, after referring to the important and highly democratic factor of “Taiwan”, China was forced to respect the voices and opinions from Taiwan people’s self-identity (feedback), and thereby completes the decision-making model during the process of conducting ”the warfare of public opinions” toward Taiwan.

並列關鍵字

decision-making model ； warfare of public opinions ； Hu Jin-Tao

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