運用關聯規則和序列型樣探討投資地區之關聯性與遷移－以印刷電路板產業為例

大陸現在為全球提供印刷電路板(Printed Circuit Board)產能最大，產業鏈也最完整的國家，而台商是所有生產者中最主要的供應者。在投資的過程中，廠商可能因為佈局失誤而錯失機會，所以本研究想藉由已知的投資訊息中挖掘與預測出未來台商可能的佈局趨勢。本研究嘗試運用資料探勘的兩種技術，找出台商在大陸投資PCB組裝產業地區的關聯性規則和地區遷移變化。從經濟新報資料庫中萃取出台商赴大陸投資PCB組裝產業的上櫃公司進行研究分析。最後，本研究發現，長三角的上海、昆山和蘇州與珠三角的深圳是此產業的投資重鎮，並且從已知的資訊中，預測寧波、南京、廣州和惠州是之後PCB產業的佈局重點區域，此研究發現可做為台商投資佈局的參考依據。

關鍵字

關聯規則；序列型樣；印刷電路板PCB產業；地區遷移

並列摘要

Mainland China has the largest production capacity for printed circuit boards globally, as well as the most complete supply chain. Taiwanese business is the main supplier to the Chinese Printed Circuit Board supply chain. To maximize investment opportunities, this study forecasts future trends in the printed circuit board industry by analyzing publicly available information. Two data mining techniques are implemented in this investigation to identify relationships between industrial area and industrial movement. Data is obtained from the Taiwan Economic Journal (TEJ), and this study analyses TSEC and OTC listed firms that have invested in the Printed Circuit Board Industry in Mainland China. This study found that Shanghai, Kunshan and Suzhou are the focus of investment in the PCB industry. Additionally, from previous secondary data base, Ningbo, Nanjing, Guangzhou, and Huizhou could be the important investment regions to PCB industry. These finding that can serve as a valuable reference for Taiwanese PCBA companies.