臺灣失業率的景氣波動－以失業流入與流出率分析

THE INS AND OUTS OF UNEMPLOYMENT FLUCTUATIONS IN TAIWAN

吳致謙(Jhih-Chian Wu)

《臺灣經濟預測與政策》 53卷2期 (2023/03) Pp. 1-50

摘要

本文拆解臺灣2000年至2019年的失業率景氣波動為兩個部份：一是來自失業流入率（就業者離職變為失業的機率）的影響，另一則是源自失業流出率（失業者尋職成功而就業的機率）的影響；本文發現，這20年的整體樣本期間，臺灣失業率的景氣波動主因為失業流出的變化，有74%來自失業流出率影響，僅26%與失業流入率有關。而在這20年間，臺灣經歷兩次劇烈的失業率上升時期：一是2000年第3季至2003年第1季；另一則是2008年第1季至2009年第3季。在2000年第3季至2003年第1季，失業流出率解釋58.5%的失業率的上升，而在2008年第1季至2009年第3季，則有高達83.7%的失業率上升源自失業流出率的減少。為進一步瞭解失業流出率變化的成因，本文估算臺灣2000年至2019年的配對效率。本文發現配對效率在失業率上升時期呈現下降走勢。在2000年第3季後的失業率上升，來自配對效率的影響有18.55%；而在2008年第1季後的失業率上升，則有31.26%可以被配對效率的減少解釋。由於配對效率反映的是勞動市場媒合尋職者與求才廠商的能力，透過分析配對效率，可以得知勞動市場摩擦在影響臺灣失業率上有一定重要性。

關鍵字

勞動者流動率 ； 尋職成功率 ； 離職率 ； 配對效率 ； 失業

並列摘要

This study decomposes fluctuations of Taiwan's cyclical unemployment into unemployment inflow (separation rate) and outflow (job finding rate). For this purpose, I construct Taiwan's separation rate and job finding rate from 2000 to 2019 based on the data of unemployment duration. My decomposition exercises show that the job finding rate can explain around 74% of the fluctuation in Taiwan's cyclical unemployment while the separation rate can only account for the remaining 26% during this period. In particular, Taiwan's unemployment rate sharply increased during 2000/Q3-2003/Q1 and 2008/Q1-2009/Q3. During 2000/Q3-2003/Q1, the decline in the job finding rate can explain 58.5% of the total increase in the unemployment rate, while 83.7% of the total increase in the unemployment during 2008/Q1-2009/ Q3 can be attributed to the decline in the job finding rate. To understand the changes in the job finding rate, I construct matching efficiency from 2000 to 2019. The decline in the matching efficiency accounts for 18.55% of the total increase in the unemployment rate after 2001/Q3. In addition, 31.26% of the total increase in the unemployment rate after 2008/Q1 can be attributed to the decline in the matching efficiency. Thus, the impact of matching friction on Taiwan's unemployment rate is profound.

並列關鍵字

Workers' transition flows ； Job finding rate ； Separation rate ； Matching efficiency ； Unemployment

參考文獻

吳俊毅（2017）, 「應用勞動市場流動率探討臺灣自然失業率」, 《中央銀行季刊》,39(2), 5-36。(Wu, J.-Y. (2017), “Labor Market Flows and Taiwan’s Natural Rate of Unemployment,” Quarterly Bulletin of the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan), 39(2), 5-36.)

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