全球暖化趨勢對臺灣水稻栽培環境之影響

Impact of Global Warming Trend on Rice Cultural Environment in Taiwan

盧孟明(Mong-Ming Lu) ； 陳雲蘭(Yun-Lan Chen) ； 陳圭宏(Guay-Hong Chen)

《作物、環境與生物資訊》 5卷1期 (2008/03) Pp. 60-72

https://doi.org/10.30061/CEB.200803.0006

摘要

本文根據8個氣象站的1951-2006 年資料，分析全球暖化對臺灣優質米「安全環境」(Lu et al. 2006)的影響。一期稻作的分析以四月至六月為重點，二期稻作則以分析九月至十一月的氣象條件為主。結果發現氣候暖化後日最低溫過高且總日照時數減少，對生產優質米的「安全環境」不利，南部受到的影響最大。暖化後一期稻作的環境不安全性往前擴展，四月和五月的日最低溫過高的日數明顯增多。二期稻作受到的環境威脅不似一期稻作明顯，十月份日最低溫過高的日數明顯增多；十一月的不安全日數雖然增多，但因季節性的平均氣溫較低，環境不安全日數增加的比例並不高，南部因平均氣溫較高，受到的影響仍是比較大。四至六月和九至十一月的總日照時數都隨暖化減少，長日照日出現頻率降低，下降現象還是以南部較明顯。雨量變化方面，五月至次年四月累積雨量在北部有隨氣候暖化增加的趨勢，然而從十月至次年二月的枯水期累積雨量的變化趨勢卻非增反減；雖然減少趨勢沒有通過90%信心水準的統計檢驗，從近幾年一、二月頻頻討論一期稻作是否休耕的現象來看，北部冬半年雨水偏少似已增加了一期稻作適種條件的不確定。

關鍵字

水稻 ； 水稻氣候環境 ； 農業氣候變遷

並列摘要

Impact of global warming trend on the ”safe environment” for quality rice production in Taiwan has been analyzed using the 1951-2006 observed data at eight meteorological stations collected by Central Weather Bureau. The principal months of study for the firstcrop were May-June and were September-November for the secondcrop. Due to the accompanied rise of daily minimum temperature and reduction of the daily sunshine hours, the warm climate seemed not in favor of the safe conditions of rice culture, especially in southern region of Taiwan. The influence on the first crop was stronger than on the second crop. For the first crop, the ratio of the unsafe to the safe days significantly increased during its growing season of April and May, while the increase was marginal during November, the grain-filling period of the second crop. For both crops, the annual accumulated sunshine hours decreased when the climate was warmer. The annual accumulated rainfall from May to April in the subsequent year showed an increasing trend in north Taiwan, while the accumulated rainfall during the dryer half year from October to February declined. The declining trend was not statistically significant at the 10% significance level. However, the frequent land fallow practice in recent years suggests that the declined rainfall in dry season has become an environmental threatening factor to the first crop rice cultivation.

並列關鍵字

Rice ； Rice cultural climate ； Agricultural climate change