海洋運輸、物流績效、區域整合對出口的影響

隨著科技進步與運輸模式之改變，全球化風潮下跨國貿易加速成長，運輸與物流在貿易中扮演著關鍵性的角色。出口國將商品運送至進口國所需經過的運輸過程，除了主要的海運運送，尚包含生產端至港口的陸上物流運輸，以及兩國港口之基礎設施和服務。本文檢視海洋運輸、國際物流績效與港口設施如何影響一國之出口，藉以說明世界海洋運輸與出口貿易的關係。本研究透過引力模型及集群分析，使用2007年與2013年的橫斷面資料，檢視定期航運、物流績效與區域整合對於出口的影響。主要發現如下：(1)物流績效和定期航線連結性對出口有正面影響且顯著，意謂出口國物流績效和定期航線連結性愈佳，有助於該國出口的表現，特別是機械及運輸設備、其他製品等產業愈發明顯。至於港口基礎設施品質對出口的影響較無明確效果。(2)透過集群分析發現，全球國際貨櫃運輸的營運核心由歐洲轉移至亞洲，顯示亞洲在國際海運市場的地位逐漸重要。而在亞洲核心國家則由東協四小虎取代東亞主要貿易國家。(3)歐盟和東南亞國協的區域貿易效果明顯，特別是歐盟(EU)以資本密集產業貿易效果最明顯，而東協(ASEAN)的區域內貿易創造效果，隨時間遞移有從初級產業轉為工業製品之趨勢。反之，北美自由貿易協定(NAFTA)的貿易效果較為有限。(4)定期航運核心區塊在機械及運輸設備、其他製品產業的出口影響，明顯大過於其他產業。惟跨期似乎有弱化趨勢，與區域整合的發展相左，兩者區域效果呈一消一長之結果。

關鍵字

引力模型；集群分析；出口；物流績效指數；定期航運連結指數

並列摘要

Along with the trend of globalization, transport progress and regional integration will raise volume of trade. Thus, different industries with different transportation features would be expected to have different patterns of countries involved. Using the clustering analysis and gravity model, this paper investigates the evolution of likely trade-bloc phenomenon and relation between trade and marine transportation for the last decades. The major findings are summarized as follows. 1) Both liner shipping connectivity and logistics performance have significantly positive coefficient in the regression result for each year, especially machinery and transportation equipment, miscellaneous manufactured articles. 2) For liner shipping, a significant two-bloc phenomenon could be identified, one declining bloc mainly composed of the European countries, and the other rising bloc of countries among Asia. However, the core countries have gradually changed from those of Europe to the countries of East Asia over the period. 3) For EU and ASEAN, the intra trade creation effects are empirically supported, correspondingly EU in the capital intensive industries and ASEAN in primary and resources industry, respectively. 4) For LSCI-bloc, the effect of intra-regional trade creation is better than EU, ASEAN and NAFTA.

並列關鍵字

Gravity model ； Cluster analysis ； Export ； Logistics performance index ； Liner shipping connectivity index

國際替代計量

海洋運輸、物流績效、區域整合對出口的影響

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